West Route of South North Water Transfer Project- A permanent solution for long term peace and stability of Xian

Translated from the original text appearing in Mandarin

By: Tan Chenlong Tan Jia
Zhuhai Municipality Public Security Bureau, 519070 2. Southern Power Grid Zhuhai Power Supply Bureau, 519000

Keywords: West route South North Water Transfer Ecological Environment Xinjiang Long term order and stability

Abstract:

The South North Water Diversion Project that includes all the rivers that flow from the Western Tibet region of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau towards the west of Tarim basin is called the West Route of South North Water Transfer Project. This paper elucidates the plan for the West Route of South North Water Diversion Project and the initial estimate of the magnitude of drainage. Ten major uses of this project have also been discussed and a simple introduction of the three hypothesis related to increase in precipitation at the drainage basin after a huge increase in drainage at the North West has been given. The main point of this paper is the assumption that for maintaining long term order and stability in Xinjiang, both the symptom and the root cause must be addressed and that there are three major ways in which this project has effects in improving the ecological environment at southern Xinjiang and maintaining the long term peace and stability in Xinjiang. The State organisations are suggested to start an intense research on the three assumptions and make a plan and implement the West route of South North Water transfer project at the earliest.

1. Safeguarding long term peace and stability needs a short term as well as a long term cure and chalking out of measures for a permanent cure.

More than ten years ago, Jiang Zemin had pointed out while inspecting Xinjiang:“A lot of arduous and meticulous work needs to be done for safeguarding the stability of Xinjiang. The work fighting ethnic separatism, protecting the unity of the nation, safeguarding ethnic unity is very important and painstaking. In Xinjiang, fighting ethnic se separatism and fighting terrorist forces are a long term and difficult task. Every level of the government, especially the leaders and cadres at each level must improve their awareness about the state power and potential danger. They must have sufficient political perspicacity regarding Xinjiang’s movement of ethnic separatism and violent terrorist crime. We cannot afford to lose our alertness and let down our guards.” During the early years of liberation, Xinjiang and Tibet have witnessed numerous incidences of separatist rebellion. In the last few years, anti-China forces and organisations have planned 3.14 incidences of violent terrorist crimes in Tibet and 7.5 such incidences in Xinjiang. So, our country must strengthen anti separatist forces and safeguard the long term peace and stability of Xinjiang. Not only should the problem be solved superficially, but it should be removed from the roots. A plan scheme needs to be made to solve the problem from the root.

2. The initial plan of West route of South North water transfer project and the initial estimate of the extent of drainage

The South North Water Transfer Project that includes all the rivers that flow from the Western Tibet region of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau towards the west of Tarim basin is called the West Route of South North Water Transfer Project. Every river in Western Tibet belongs to Indus river system. Indus river originates in the plateau of northern Tibet and has three tributaries within the boundary of our country, among these are the major tributaries of the Indus river, Singe Zangpo(Also known as Shiquanhe), Lang Qin Zangpo ( Sutlej )and Qipuqiapu( Its river basin is comparatively small). Singe Zangpo and Lan Qin Zanpo are quite close to Tarim basin. The tentative scheme for water diversion in as follows: (Refer to the diagram).

① The upstream sites for water intake of Singe Zangpo and Lan Qin Zangpo that have been selected for building dams have three uses: First, is the regulating the flow of river water; Second, using hydraulic force to generate electricity; Third, expanding the surface water area at the plateau of northern Tibet thus increasing the area from which water is evaporated and increasing the speed of water cycle at the plateau of northern Tibet. ② At the site for building dams, selected before the Lan Qin Zangpo flows out of the borders of the nation, at the height of about 2900 meters, build many levels of pumped storage power stations and a route of 30 km for water diversion, pump water to about a height of about 4300 meters above the sea level to Singe Zangpo, many levels of pumped water storage hydroelectric stations with a total(pumping) head of 1400m. ③ Build dams at selected locations before the Singe Zangpo flows out of the borders of the nation at a height of about 4300m, creating a water diversion route of about 29km and remake a part of the natural river,the flow of water uses the advantage of the force created by difference in the water level to naturally flow upto the Pangong Tso lake of the China India border.(The height of water at Pangong Tso is approximately 4241 meters). ④ After the quantity of water at the Pangong Tso has been regulated, build a power station that can be run using pumped storage and 39 km of water diversion route,pump water to Pangong Tso(The level of water at Panggong Tso is approximately 4960 meters,This is the highest water diversion route,the power station run by pumped water storage has a geometric lift of 719 meters. ⑤ Build 98 km water diversion route where the water flows to Aksai China flowing with the help of gravity.(At present the Aksai Chin Lake is at the height of 4844 meters)⑥ After the volume of water has been regulated in Aksai Chin,build a 34 km water diversion route where the water flows to Yurunkax river(A tributary of Hotan River) flowing with the help of the gravitational force, the drainage area needs to be drained in the accordance with the incoming flow. When the water enters the Yurunkax river area, it will be at an elevation of approximately 4537 meters. ⑦ Then, drainage needs to be done along the flow of the river and locations need to be selected for generating electricity by building dams. At present the Aksai Chin Lake (at the height of 4844 meters)and the river valley at Xinjiang near the Hotan city( the river valley is not even 1600 meters above the sea level)is at a height difference of more than 3200 meters.A large amount of electricity can be generated if a dam is built here. ⑧According to the law of energy conservation, as long as the difference in the levels of water and the coefficient of utilization of energy of the pumped water storage run power station is not wasted, the energy wasted in the beginning for pumping water can be compensated for sufficiently in the later phase. The theoretical electricity generation capacity of Singe Zangpo is approximately 4300-1600—loss of water head is approximately 200==2500m.The theoretical electricity generation capacity of Lan Qin Zangpo is about 2900-1600-loss of water head is around 200==1100m.A solution has to be found to raise the coefficient of energy utilisation and for regulating water as well as electricity.⑨The above plan employs the method of first raising the water by pumping and then draining the diverted water used for generation of electricity. If this method of operation is used to manage a large amount of work and a lot of loss in energy consumption, and also perhaps use an ultra long tunnel from the point where water is drawn to the Tarim Basin, using the force of gravity for helping the water flow, then we need to use detailed comparative analysis of technology and economy to determine the method of water diversion.

Diverting the Indus River to Xinjiang: a 'pilot' project!

According to materials concerned, the total area of all river basins in Western Tibet is 54620 Km2 , including that of Singe Zangpo, Lan Qin Zangpo, Qipuqiapu river and so on. The area of their drainage basins is 27450 Km2 , 22760Km2 and 4410Km2 respectively. They occupy 50.26%, 41.67 % and 8.07% of the total drainage basin respectively. The table below shows the condition of all the rivers of Western Tibet as per the ‘Water Resources Bulletin’ made by the Changjiang Water Resources Commission (CWRC) over the years. It can be seen from the table that,approximately 2 billion square of water has been diverted by the West Route of South North Water Transfer Project over the years. (29.86*92%*75%=2.6 billion square,In this about 92% is from Singe Zangpo and Lan Qin Zangpo when compared to the area of the rest of the rivers. It comprises 75% of the total water diverted).

summary-condition-water-resources

3 Simple introduction to the three scientific hypothesis that predict that after diverting the water,precipitation in Southern Xinjiang will increase

3.1 Zhang Xuewen’s scientific hypothesis- “Man made Oasis at the foot of the mountain will help increase the rate of water cycle in the valley by increasing the humidity, thus increasing precipitation”.

Based on the changing trend of increase in precipitation in the last few decades at Xinjiang, in 21 March 2001, Zhang Xuewen gave a speech at the Xinjiang Meteorological Society. His topic was ‘Three understandings about change in climate and ecology in Xinjiang[1]。A chapter in his article ‘ Plant willows unconsciously and the willow gives shade’ ,Researcher Zhang Xuewen says “It is estimated that the new oasis when compared to natural riverbeds, woodland, marshes, lakes is much closer to the upper reaches of the river. The new oasis used as irrigation water evaporates at places closer to the mountain and is drawn into the mountain and valley breezes in front of the mountain. This kind of a breeze would increase the speed of water cycle in front of the mountain and eventually lead to increased precipitation. Besides, continuous large areas of farmland also would result in increase in the rate of evaporation and hence a subsequent increase in the moisture content of the air resulting in increased precipitation. The effect is different when the moisture content evaporates in front of the mountains and when it evaporates after reaching deep into the desert. The former can promote the rate of water cycle, lead to precipitation while the same is much difficult in the latter case.” [1]. The hypothesis put forward by Zhang Xuewen was recognised to a good extent. In 2011, Zhang Xuewen talked about his hypothesis in another article 2011[2].The reception basin of the West Route of South North Water Transfer Project is located at the foot of the mountain. According to the scientific hypothesis of Zhang Xuewen, local precipitation will increase after the water diversion.

3.2 The scientific hypothesis of Chen Changli, Huo Youguang etc-“Diversion of sea water to the west will increase precipitation in North West”

Chen Changli, Huo Youguang etc proposed the plan for diverting sea water to the west and they have also written many monographs and many scientific papers[3] [4] [5].The article believes that diverting sea water to the west can increase precipitation at the North West and improve the local ecological environment . Two sessions of ‘Integrated land and sea plan -Summit on diverting sea water to the west’ have already been held .Three papers of Chen Changli [3] [4] [5] have been published in the leading academic magazine ‘Engineering Sciences’. These at least make it clear that that this argument has got support from numerous experts and the argument deserves to be discussed and contended. Although the magnitude of the project for diverting sea water to the west is very large in scale and the route for diversion is too long, the geometric head of diversion from sea level to the northwest at some places is more than 1000 meters and energy consumption is a lot, all the water diverted is salt water, there is a lot of controversy to their argument. Even if there is technology, it is doubtful if there is sufficient capital. Although parts of the ground of argument of the two professors regarding water diversion, increasing precipitation at the reception basin is very convincing. In the second chapter of the article ‘Diverting sea water to the west and A radical treatment for the desert and sandstorm in China’[3]- ‘Water vapour exchange pattern and its implication in Yili Basin’ , Chen Changli has summarised the three key elements regarding precipitation of northwest desert hinterland :“⑴ The high mountain ranges helps in condensation of water. In the North West mountainous region, the best height for condensation of water at the North-West Mountains is 1400-1800 m.⑵ Having ample source for moisture will bring abundant precipitation in the mountains and the lack of it similarly must reduce the amount of precipitation.⑶ A stable wind speed and direction will continuously transport the moisture which has been generated by evaporation of water from the water source to the mountains where it can condense. The three conditions mentioned above are a must have and are readily available conditions in the interiors of the north west” [3]. The essence of the three key elements stated by Chen Changli’s is based on the general knowledge of upwind slope and orographic rainfall .This makes it clear that at least the basic direction of the three key elements proposed by Chen Changli’s is correct.

Yili river valley has the arid and semi arid region of central Asia to its west, Kul Banton Gut desert in the Junggar Basin to its North East and the Taklamakan desert of the Tarim basin to its South East. Yili river valley is surrounded by desert but in the precipitation map of China, the amount of precipitation at Yili river valley is heavy and is very prominent. Chen Changli’s three key elements can explain this natural phenomenon and the objective facts prove its correctness.

Some researchers have raised questions on the hypothesis mentioned above. One such opinion is: “Professor Chen Changli’s basic presumption is letting sea water evaporate and fall as rain, but even if the loss incurred during transport is not calculated and it is assumed that all the sea water is diverted to Xinjiang,water vapour formed by 200 billion cubic meters of sea water is approximately equal to only 2 out of 100,000 parts of the dynamic moisture flux in the air of Xinjiang. Its influence is very small and it will not be able to realize its goal of increasing precipitation significantly enough to change the arid climatic conditions and desertification of the of the North West”. This kind of an opinion which questions the hypothesis has three problems. One, according to the estimate by Shi Yuguang and Sun Zhaobo[6],the annual moisture flux of Xinjiang is approximately 2.61148 trillion tonnes. 200 billion tones is 7.66% of the total water flux of Xinjiang. This figure is 3830 times that of which caused the doubtful opinion. Two, there is a lot of difference between the physical properties in the lower and the upper atmosphere .The local moisture content is mostly present in the lower atmosphere. The physical properties of local moisture and moisture coming from outside is very different. Based on what evidence should one conclude that the proportion of precipitation caused by local moisture and the moisture coming from other places is similar? [14] [15].Three,after water diversion, the moisture of the reception area will increase as a result of evaporation. As a result, the precipitation will also increase. Again, the increase in precipitation will lead to increase in evaporation and increase in the local moisture content; increase in local moisture content will in turn increase precipitation. This kind of a cycle will increase precipitation quite substantially; i.e.,water diversion will have a “multiplication effect” and “will give additional returns” [14]. The people who were doubtful about this have not considered this particular factor.

The people who are doubtful believe: “We need to remember that many areas close to the sea are deserts. For example, the Arabian Peninsula between the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, Cape Somali Peninsula between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, Namib desert by the Atlantic Ocean at the South Western part of Africa, Western Sahara Desert by the Atlantic Ocean in the North Western part of Africa, the Australian deserts from Australia to the West Coast, Chile Desert in South America, Atacama desert and Patagonian desert to name a few. So building a few artificial lakes cannot increase precipitation in the surrounding areas”. There are two problems with this kind of an opinion from the doubtful people. One, Climate on the earth’s surface and latitude are closely linked. The latitude of China’s North Western Desert area is much higher than that of the deserts mentioned above. Just from the point of view of latitude, it cannot be compared to the deserts mentioned. Two, the above mentioned desert regions do not have high mountain for orographic lifts and hence do not fulfil Chen Changli’s three key elements, whereas, the desert of North Western part of China has many huge mountain ranges (like the Tianshan Mountains, Qilian Mountains, Altun Mountains, Alashan Mountains etc) which will cool down the water vapour and lead to precipitation.

3.3 The Scientific hypothesis of Tan Chenglong , Tan Jia etc “ A very large scale of water diversion will completely change the arid condition of the North west”

Other than this paper, Tan Chenglong and Tan Jia have authored 13 papers that present extremely bold scientific theories[7]—[19].Among these , the argument in the first ten manuscripts are similar. Different arguments that supplement and confirm their point have been used. The 10 documents use different methods to all prove that “Diverting water to the North West of China in a large scale can completely change the arid weather condition in that region”. In these 10 documents , the following views are quite new and a part of the argument is quite convincing:① The fitting formula for precipitation and moisture content obtained by research, the general changing trend of efficiency of precipitation, the empirical formula of annual precipitation all reveal that the reduced ratio of the changing rainfall pattern of the underlying surface of vast areas of the desert , and made clear the causal logic and positive feedback process of large scale water diversion as well as the increase in precipitation of the inner flow area [7] [8]。②At the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and the Arid regions of Mongolia, especially the objective facts of climate change and glacial fluctuation over a period of half a century at Xinjiang prove the hypothesis [9].③The historical climate of the area of inner flow of the North West and the contemporary arid and semi arid climatic conditions of Central Asia prove the hypothesis [10]. ④With reference to the lake effect, effect of oasis and desertification, the concept of “Deep Basin effect” has been proposed. It is also believed that it has a very big impact on the vapour movement in the inner areas of the basin, change in the phase of water and the water cycle [12]. ⑤Just using the common sense of meteorological science is not reliable and must be corrected as early as possible. Precipitation at the inner continental areas far away from the sea, especially the hinterland of the Eurasian continent mainly comes from evaporation and dispersion of water vapor in the hinterland and not from water evaporated from the sea [13].⑥ The huge mountain ranges which surround the extremely deep basins have a “constraining effect” on the evaporation at the bottom of the basin. From derivations using mathematical models, the “water diversion multiplied benefits” for diversion of water to the extremely deep basins can be seen. [14] 。⑦ The average annual precipitation of Qinghai Lake basin over the years in approximately 400mm and the average annual precipitation of Qaidam basin and Tarim basin, which are quite close to each other, is less than 100mm. The former is much more than the latter. The “exponential effect of water diversion” can explain this natural phenomenon [14]. (According to hydrological monitoring and calculation by the Department of Hydrology of Qinghai province over several decades, the average annual reduction in moisture content of Qinghai lake is 360 million cubic meters. Qinghai lake has paid the price of reduction in moisture content, and with the evaporation of local moisture, has guaranteed that the locality has comparatively more water vapour saturation, more clouds and more precipitation. This can be understood as water diversion over time where 360 million cubic meters of water is diverted to the Qinghai lake basin.);“Deep basin effect”can also explain this natural phenomenon [12]. ⑧The mean altitude of local water vapour is comparatively low and the mean altitude of water vapour coming from other places is higher. The physical behaviour of the two is also different. The water vapour closer to the ground level result in precipitation more easily than water vapour present at higher altitudes and local water vapour results in precipitation more easily than water vapour coming in from other places.[14] [15]. ⑨Using the Ideal Gas equation, we can derive that most of the water vapour from evapotranspiration at the bottom of extremely deep basins, undergo a local water cycle in the inner regions of the basin [16].⑩With reference to the concept and demand of the Judicial Evidence Chain and the ring of evidence, most of the evidences in manuscript 10, [7] — [16] are enough to form a dense and diverse web of evidence chains [16]. These increase the credibility of the hypothesis to a great extent.

In the manuscript 13, the last three parts elucidated terrifying results of not diverting sea water to the North West and how water needs to be diverted. Together with the first ten it forms a complete conception for water diversion. Although there are problems here and there in the hypothesis given by Tan Chenglong and Tang Jia, but the basic point of view has received positive feedbacks from more than 10 experts.

3.4 The commonness in the three hypotheses mentioned above, the connection in their basic essences to the “oasis effect” and advise on further doing further research on the hypothesis

The three hypotheses mentioned above are a result of minute observation of objective phenomenon and earnest pondering. They can all partially explain natural phenomenon and clearly explain how water diversion in a large scale to the North West will increase the local precipitation there. Although the three hypotheses are yet to be verified or falsified and lack evidence that will strongly convince a lot of people, but the truth is sometimes in the hands of the few. At least, at present, these hypotheses cannot be completely denied.

The Oasis effect makes it clear that the precipitation at the oasis and areas close to it, especially areas lying in the direction of downward wind from the oasis is larger than precipitation in the surrounding desert. After water diversion in a large scale to the North West, manmade oasis can be made at the reception basin. This man made oasis will increase the local precipitation and increase in local precipitation can in turn increase the area of the man made oasis. Also, the increase in area of oasis can increase the local precipitation. This kind of a virtuous cycle will slowly improve the local ecological environment. All the three hypotheses confirm to the basic principle of the oasis effect and deserve to be further looked into by the academic circle.

Before 200 years, mankind would not have been able to believe that high tech products such as the airplane, cell phone, computer, television and so on could exist. However all these have become a reality now. Till now, there is not a single instance of mankind changing the climatic conditions existing in nature. This however does not imply that mankind will never be able to do so.(In reality air conditioners have been able to change the local climatic conditions within a room. It is just that the area is very limited). All the three hypotheses stated above come from minute and detailed study of nature and earnest pondering on the same. These have also been supported by a few specialists. If the hypotheses can actually be proved, then it will prove extremely valuable for our country. Truth often lies in the hands of a few people. As long as the experts set out to work on this issue,spend a few days to check and approve the manuscripts [1]—[17] concerned with the three hypotheses mentioned above, and pool in their individual wisdoms, it would definitely be possible to find convincing proofs for the hypotheses or find something that convincingly disproves it. Once an in depth research has been carried out, the three hypotheses can be verified, falsified or modified. There is a sharp debate regarding water resources in the northern part of the country. The experts on meteorology, geography, water conservancy, water resources eat the food grown by the common people, wear clothes made by the common people and as citizens of China whose profession demands that they carry out scientific research; it is their responsibility and their duty to be concerned by the concerns of the common people. For the long term benefit of the people of China, it is imperative to spend a few days to carry out further research on the three hypotheses to check and approve the “novel and bold idea”.

4. Improvement of the ecological environment of Xinjiang and an initial estimate of the area of the manmade oasis after water diversion has been carried out

The oasis effect summarizes the experience of in depth research of natural geography and long term observations. The theory of the oasis effect and the facts make it clear that precipitation at the oasis and in the areas lying close to the oasis, especially lying in the direction of downward wind from the oasis is greater than that of the surrounding desert. After this West Route of South North Water Transfer Project has been realised, and water diverted to the basin of Xinjiang is approximately 2 billion cubic meters annually,it will be possible to develop large oases at the foot of the mountains of the Xinjiang basin. The large oases can increase the local precipitation and the increase in precipitation will increase the area of the oases in turn, creating a virtuous cycle. This will improve the ecological environment of Xinjiang.

The average annual precipitation at the middle of the Tarim basin is less than or equal to 25mm.From the middle of the basin to its periphery, the precipitation increases gradually. The average annual precipitation at the base of the mountain is close to 100mm. After the West Route of South North Water Transfer Project has diverted water to the Tarim basin, precipitation at the reception basin will further increase. Natural precipitation at the reception basin added to the precipitation brought about as a result of diverted water will definitely increase the area of the oases at Xinjiang. In the northern regions of our country where annual precipitation is no less than 250mm, if management is improved it will not all turn into desert. If excessive grazing is not done, the land would turn into grassland. In the book “Save China through water from Tibet”, there is a paragraph which says :“After doing research and experiments over decades, the desert expert at Chinese Academy of Sciences certified: If every acre of desert is irrigated with 100 cubic meters of water every year, over a period of ten years, it will become a woodland, a grassland and a fertile farmland”. If every year, an additional of 100 cubic meters is used for irrigating every acre of land, then it is equivalent to 150mm of irrigation water every year. According to this calculation, 2 billion cubic meters of water diverted for 10 years continuously will convert 20 million acres of desert into an oasis (which converts to 13,300 square kilometres). In a sentence from the book “Save China through water from Tibet” which talked about woodlands, grasslands and good farms having relatively less irrigation and about not having quality plant crops , the amount of annual irrigation at the high yielding oasis per acre is greater than the amount of irrigation mentioned above. Calculating on the basis of the assumption that the annual amount of irrigation per acre of desert is 400 cubic meters (Equivalent to amount of water for irrigation besides natural precipitation, the volume of water for irrigation annually is 400÷666.67*1000==600mm).The area of the new oasis is500,000acres(i.e., 3333 square kilometres).Because of this, the annual water diversion of 2 billion cubic meters due the West route of North South water diversion project can help create a natural oasis of about 5-20 million acres .

5. Ten major uses of West Route of South North Water diversion project
The West Route of South North Water Diversion Project has at least has ten major uses. It will show the following effects:

Increase in the volume of water resource at the Tarim basin. The Taklamakan desert which lies in the middle of the hinterland of the Tarim basin, is the world’s largest mobile sand dune. It is an arid region with little precipitation. So water resource there is extremely precious. According to statistics of the mountain pass, the annual runoff from Tarim River is 40 billion cubic meters. After water diversion, the annual addition of an approximate 2 billion cubic meters of water coming from external sources has a great significance.

Increase in the local hydraulic power generation capacity. The source of water for West Route of South North Water Diversion project is located in Qinghai Tibet plateau. The altitude of the source of water is above 3000 meters and above 2000 meters. The altitude of the reception basin is just about 1500 meters. Subtracting the loss due to loss of water head on the way ,there is still a water head of more than1000m for production of hydro electricity which can produce a large amount of electricity. The West Route of South North Water Diversion Project will help in the production of electricity within the boundary of our country using water resources which is simply wasted when it flows out of the boundary by diverting the water. It can be said that “water diversion can kill two birds with the same stone,–diversion of water and diversion of electricity”.

After the West Route of South North Water Diversion project is built, the desert at the reception basin will turn into an oasis. As per the estimate made above, 5-20 million acres of oasis will be formed newly at the Tarim Basin. If one West route of South North Water Diversion project can increase the area of oasis to such an extent, it is really incredible and will bring big returns. At the Central Eastern part of our country the cost for reclaiming 1 acre of wasteland for cultivation is millions of Yuan is spent. As per this, it can be estimated that the return for investments will be in hundreds of billions of Yuan. As long as the country slightly modifies the policy of requisition-compensation balance of arable land,the cost of construction of the entire West Route of South North Water Transfer Project can be solved. To contain the global warming, International Innovation has made a carbon sink deal (carbon emissions deal). This project will convert the desert into an oasis. As logic dictates, our government will be able to get a lot of financial support from the carbon emission deal.

Develop the economy and improve the standard of living of the local people。After the West Route of the South North Water Diversion Project has been realised, the local total volume of the local water resources will increase, hydro electricity production will also increase, desert will become oasis, ecological environment will improve and all these will definitely promote the local economic development and raise the living standards of the local people.

According to the three hypothesis stated above, water diversion can ,water diversion can increase precipitation at the reception area. If these hypotheses can actually be established, it can be of great value to our country. The hypotheses still need to be experimented. The West Route of South North Water Diversion Project can serve as a laboratory.

According to experiment reports[20],turning the Sahara Desert into an Oasis can contain global warming. If the argument of global warming is actually established and the effect of increase in precipitation that the West Route of South North Water Diversion promises is very apparent then our country has just found counter measure for containing global warming for the entire mankind. If it is so, our project of West Route of South North Water Diversion Project will be supported and endorsed by most of the countries of the world. If the result of increase in precipitation is evident, we can divert a large volume of water to the North West. The local precipitation will increase many fold and the desert of the North West will completely vanish. If the desert is converted into Oasis, then it will enable us to plant food crops and plants for bio energy. This will reduce the dependency of human beings on petroleum. The newly increased Oasis after the diversion of water will absorb a large amount of greenhouse particles annually and help in meeting the goal of containing global warming.

It will contribute to food and energy security of our country. Office administrator Chen Yiwen, The Deputy head of the Central Rural Work Leading group introduced in “The area for growing crops is China is deficient by 20%,“In 2011,including pulses, China has bought more than 58 million tonnes of food supplies from the global market. The amount of food produce imported is more than one tenth of the total production of the food produce within the country. Besides, in 2011, China has also bought 3.31 million of cotton, 6.74 million tonnes of vegetable oil,2 million tonnes of sugar,about 1million tonnes of pork and so on. Such large figures of import of farm produce has made the problem of food security of China more and more prominent”, “Pulses are the farm produce that are imported the most in China. In the recent years ,the amount of pulses imported has increased steeply。We cannot even meet 20% of our total demand of pulses”,“Calculating on the basis of figures of import of pulses and of vegetable oil,we need 600-700 million acres of land outside the boundary of China to be able to maintain the present situation of large amount importing of pulses .Calculating from this,At present China already has a deficiency of about 20% of area for planting foodstuff and for other farm produces”。In a country where the population is 1.35 billion, where the domestic production of food supplies are undergoing “Eight continuous increases”,and where the import of food supplies is still greater than the one tenth of the total production of food supplies within the country,it is quite evident that the food security poses a great challenge。After the diversion of water, the desert will turn into an Oasis which will increase the area of arable land of China. This will contribute to the food security of China. After diversion of water, the production of hydro-electricity will increase, the desert will be converted into an oasis,and there will be land for planting trees which will act as resources. Both of these will be beneficial for the energy security of China.

For the development of the Western region, reducing the developmental gap between the regions of China will contribute to a great extent. We can see from the distribution of population, cities and railroads in China that the gap in the development of the western regions and the central eastern region of China is very large. This is extremely unfavourable for the development of China. Since the modern times, be it Sino Japanese War, the war of resistance against Japan or invasion by the eight allied forces,all of them have invaded China from its eastern coastal region. China does not have boundary dispute with Central Asia but has island disputes with Japan and Southeast Asian countries which lie along the coast of the country. The possibility of China developing disputes along its coastline in the future is huge. If the difference in the extent of development between the various regions is huge ,the difference in the income of the people is huge, the perspective from which problems are viewed is different, then disputes can crop up very easily. This is not conducive to the joint progress between the different regions of the nation. During wartime, the Western regions will not be able to powerful backup and support to the coastal regions. The West Route of South North Water Diversion Project will help in the development of the Western Region and contribute to reducing the gap between the two regions.

It will increase the actual control of China over Aksai Chin and contribute to solving the boundary dispute. China and India are yet to officially draw boundaries at the border at Aksai Chin, Pangong Tso and a few more disputed regions. The water diversion project will pass through Aksai Chin and will increase the actual control of China over this region and hence be of help in solving the boundary dispute.

Promote unity among the nationalities and protect the long term peace and stability of Xinjiang. This issue has been dealt in detail in the following section:

6. For protecting the peace and stability of Xinjiang, we can to treat the superficial symptoms as well as the root cause. The West Route of the South North Water Diversion Project will help solve the root cause in three ways.

6.1 Bridge the psychological difference between the masses of people living in the region of Xinjiang nationality and the Central Party as well as the Central People’s government.

This will build a strong base of the masses for the long term peace and stability of Xinjiang. Projects involving transmission of natural gas and electricity from the western regions of China to the coastal east all divert energy from the west to the east. These projects help in the economic development of the Western regions to a great extent(It also helps in the economic development of the eastern region to a large extent).The West Route of South North Water Diversion Project brings into the Xinjiang basin the resource it lacks the most, i.e. water .This will have a big role to play in the economic development of the western region. The trouble of the people is the trouble of the Central Party and the Central people’s government. Leading all the ethnic groups of China in overcoming their difficulties, striding across the uninhabited northern Tibetan plateau to supply water to Xinjiang will bridge the psychological difference between the masses of people living in the region of Xinjiang nationality and the Central Party as well as the Central People’s government and will build a solid base of masses for the long term peace and stability of Xinjiang.

6.2 Developing the economy of the minority regions and for bringing good health and prosperity to the people.
The ethnic separatist forces will lose ground. In a large group, due to various reasons, the standard of living of a smaller group is often lower than the rest of the group. This smaller group does have more or less opinions and there definitely exists a centrifugal force. On the contrary,if this small groups receives help and concern from the larger group, they will definitely have the feeling of gratitude for the larger group which will help develop a centripetal force. After the West Route of South North Water Transfer Project has been built,it will bring in water and electricity to the reception area, the desert will be converted into an oasis; ecological environment will improve and will definitely improve the local economy and bring prosperity to the people. As a result, the ethnic separatist forces will lose ground.

6.3 Appropriate immigration to the locality,mutual help among the various ethnic minorities and learning from one another, various ethnic minority living together, promotion of harmony and unity among them. 56 ethnic groups live together in China and this living together has contributed a lot to the ethnic unity in the country.
Looking comprehensively at the entire country,it can be seen that the places where more diverse ethnic groups live together are better work of ethnic unity and the society is more harmonious .After the West Route of South North Water Diversion project is built,deserts will become oasis. As per the calculations done above, the area of the newly increased oasis will be about 5-20 million acres. This will bring in appropriate immigration into the locality and thereby promote ethnic unity.

From the above analysis we come to know that the project will help combat the root cause of instability in Xinjiang in three ways and help bring about long term peace and stability in Xinjiang.

7. Conclusion

With water deficiency and arid climatic conditions of the North West, it is urgently needed that water be diverted there. If the three hypothesis regarding increase in precipitation are established after water diversion,it will be extremely useful for our country. So it is necessary that they should be verified, falsified or modified. The West Route of South North Water Diversion Project can be the experimental field for the verification of the hypotheses. Objectively speaking, after the diversion of water, there will be an increase in the water resource at the reception area, hydro electricity generation, area of oasis, farm produce etc. Even if there is no significant increase in the precipitation at the reception area and the result of implementation is not good, this project is still invested into and implementing. The three impacts the West Route of South North Water Diversion Project will have on helping maintain peace and stability at Xinjiang from the root has a lot of practical significance and deep and far reaching historical significance. It is recommended the national organisations carry out in depth research on the three hypotheses and plan the execution of the West Route of South North Water Diversion Project.


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