President Xi Jinping with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Sept. 18. (Photo/Xinhua)

India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has made Tibet a major stumbling block for border relations between China and India, says Duowei News, a US-based Chinese political news website.

A Tuesday editorial from Duowei said Chinese president Xi Jinping’s recent visit to New Delhi was far from a complete success given his failure to make inroads to address tensions between the two countries over the disputed India-controlled border region of Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as a part of southern Tibet, as well as the protests against Chinese rule in Tibet that took place during Xi’s meeting with Modi.

Though Xi celebrated Modi’s 64th birthday and signed a slate of agreements during his visit, he was unable to get India to acknowledge Beijing’s one-China policy, with India’s minister of external affairs Sushma Swaraj saying rather that China should reaffirm the “one-India policy.”

“If we understand China’s sensitivity on Tibet and Taiwan, they should also understand that we have sensitivity about Arunachal Pradesh,” she said shortly prior to Xi’s arrival.

According to Duowei, Modi, who has taken a hardline stance on India’s border issues since becoming prime minister in May, is using Tibet and its exiled spiritual leader the Dalai Lama as a means to strengthen India’s claim over Arunachal Pradesh.

Tawang, a district in Arunachal Pradesh, is the hometown of the 14th Dalai Lama and the place where he was granted asylum in 1959 following the failed Tibetan uprising, after which Tibet was officially integrated into the People’s Republic of China. Beijing has never forgiven India for offering asylum to the Dalai Lama and remains opposed to any visits by the spirital guru to the region.

For Modi, however, permitting the Dalai Lama to visit Arunachal Pradesh in the face of China’s protests is a way of affirming that the region is Indian territory, Duowei said, which is why he has extended a new invitation for the Dalai Lama to visit the region next year in October and November.

The Dalai Lama has visited the region on four other occasions, each of which came at a time when border tensions between India and China were high, Duowei said. His visit in 1996, for example, came around the time then-Chinese leader Jiang Zeming signed an agreement with India aimed at building trust along the border. His 2003 visit was said to have taken place as India was said to be trying to put pressure on China during the establishment of a mechanism for special representative talks on border disputes. In 2009, the visit came as India increased its troops along the Sino-Indian border to 60,000 and deployed four Su-30 fighter jets to the area.

India’s hospitality to the Dalai Lama appears to have paid off, Duowei said. In 2003, the Dalai Lama told Indian reporters that he believed Tawang was a part of Tibet but in 2008 he said the district belonged to India. He followed up that statement by claiming in June 2009 for the first time that the whole of Arunachal Pradesh was Indian territory.

While Modi acknowledges that Tibet is a part of China, he refuses to acknowledge the one-China principle, Duowei said, adding that he has even hinted at turning Arunachal Pradesh into “a second Tibet.” Doing so and allowing the Dalai Lama to return to his homeland for good, however, would cause India to lose one of its main bargaining chips in its territorial dispute with China, Duowei added.

Modi’s tactics have not stopped at the Dalai Lama either, Duowei said. In May, Modi invited Tibetan prime minister-in-exile Lobsang Sangay to his swearing-in ceremony in New Delhi, marking the first time an Indian prime minister has extended such an honor to exiled Tibetans in India.

China has not been amused by Modi’s latest invite to the Dalai Lama, Duowei said, as evidenced by Xi’s decision to replace Wei Wei with Le Yucheng as ambassador to India shortly before his visit and also canceling a scheduled press conference with Indian reporters on Sept. 22.

Modi’s actions make it clear that is trying to merge Tibet into China and India’s border dispute, Duowei said. Tibet has already been a major issue for China-India relations over the last half century, and it appears now that it will continue to be a major obstable for diplomatic ties in the foreseeable future, it added.

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New Delhi: India has eased restrictions on building roads and military facilities along its disputed border with China, as the new government seeks to close the gap on its neighbour’s superior transport network and take a stronger stance on Beijing.

Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar said that he had relaxed environmental rules within 100 km (62 miles) of the contested border in Arunachal Pradesh in order to speed up construction of some 6,000 km of roads. The move, which also allows for the construction of army stations, arms depots, schools and hospitals in the sparsely populated Himalayan region, was announced days before Chinese President Xi Jinping visits India on September 17-18.

“This is about defence preparedness,” said Javadekar. “On the Chinese side of the border, not only have they built good roads, they are building up their railway network. Our army faces problems because of the bad quality of roads,” he added.

Work on the roads will start in the coming months. India’s shift is consistent with expectations that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who swept to power in elections four months ago, would take a tougher line on territorial disputes with neighbouring countries.

Asian great-power diplomacy stirred to life when Modi made clear his intention to play an active role on the world stage by inviting regional leaders to his inauguration in May.

His first bilateral visit outside the region was to Japan, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a two-stop tour of South Asia earlier this month, pre-empting Xi’s trip to the region this week.

“Complete shift in thinking”

After taking office, Modi moved quickly to appoint a former army chief as a minister for the northeast border region to accelerate development.

The road building plan marks a significant expansion of infrastructure in far-flung Arunachal Pradesh, a rugged, mountainous, 84,000 square km (32,400 square mile) region that China calls South Tibet.

China has vastly improved roads and is building or extending airports on its side of the border in Tibet. According to a 2010 Pentagon report, it had placed nuclear-capable intermediate missiles in the area and deployed around 300,000 troops across the Tibetan plateau.

The Modi government’s roads programme could aid plans to establish a mountain strike corps of 80,000 troops who can move easily along its border.

The world’s two most populous nations fought a brief frontier war in the area in 1962, and Chinese maps still show all of Arunachal Pradesh within China’s borders. Indian efforts at development in the region have been relatively restrained in recent years. In 2013, Modi’s predecessor announced plans for 850 km (530 miles) of new roads in the border region, and proposals to upgrade airfields made little headway.

Previous governments deliberately neglected infrastructure in Arunachal Pradesh, partly to create a natural buffer against any Chinese invasion. That policy was dropped when the extent of development on China’s side became clear.

“This is a complete shift in strategic thinking,” said Namrata Goswami, a research fellow at the Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

Dependence and distrust

The neighbours have a complicated relationship marked by growing economic ties but also distrust, particularly over their unresolved territorial disputes. The two armies were locked in a three-week standoff in May 2013 in the western Himalayas after Chinese troops set up a camp at least 10 km (6 miles) inside territory claimed by India, triggering calls that India should stand up to its neighbour.

Speaking in Beijing recently, Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, a hawkish former spy chief who has in the past expressed doubts about China’s motives, said the two nations’ disputed border would be discussed during Xi’s visit.

“Both sides have agreed to take steps to ensure the peace and tranquility of the border, and seek a fair, reasonable resolution both sides can accept on the basis of peaceful, friendly talks and consultations,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a news briefing on Thursday.

Under the easing of environmental rules, Javadekar said road building within 100 km of the “Line of Actual Control” – the de facto but disputed border between India and China – would be brought under a single general approval scheme, while the amount of reforestation required would be lowered.

India is also pushing ahead with a proposal for electricity projects in states bordering China, and has said it will continue even if international development agencies which had earmarked cash to support the underdeveloped region do not back schemes in areas claimed by China.

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In recent years, the People’s Liberation Army has been taking advantage of its rising political clout to provoke localized skirmishes and standoffs with India by breaching the two countries’ long and disputed Himalayan frontier. The PLA’s recent intensification of such border violations holds important implications for President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to India – and for the future of the bilateral relationship.

In fact, such provocations have often preceded visits to India by Chinese leaders. Indeed, it was just before President Hu Jintao’s 2006 visit that China resurrected its claim to India’s large northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh.

Likewise, prior to Premier Wen Jiabao’s trip to India in 2010, China began issuing visas on loose sheets of paper stapled into the passports of Kashmir residents applying to enter China – an indirect challenge to India’s sovereignty. Moreover, China abruptly shortened the length of its border with India by rescinding its recognition of the 1,597-kilometer line separating Indian Kashmir from Chinese-held Kashmir. And Premier Li Keqiang’s visit last May followed a deep PLA incursion into India’s Ladakh region, seemingly intended to convey China’s anger over India’s belated efforts to fortify its border defenses.

Now, China is at it again, including near the convergence point of China, India and Pakistan – the same place last year’s PLA encroachment triggered a three-week military standoff. This pattern suggests that the central objective of Chinese leaders’ visits to India is not to advance cooperation on a shared agenda, but to reinforce China’s own interests, beginning with its territorial claims. Even China’s highly lucrative and fast-growing trade with India has not curbed its rising territorial assertiveness.

By contrast, Indian premiers since Jawaharlal Nehru have traveled to China to express goodwill and deliver strategic gifts. Unsurprisingly, India has often ended up losing out in bilateral deals.

Particularly egregious was Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s 2003 surrender of India’s Tibet card. Vajpayee went so far as to use, for the first time, the legal term “recognize” to accept what China calls the Tibet Autonomous Region as “part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China.” That opened the way for China to claim Arunachal Pradesh (three times the size of Taiwan) as “South Tibet” and reinforced China’s view of territorial issues: Whatever area it occupies is Chinese territory, and whatever territorial claims it makes must be settled on the basis of “mutual accommodation and understanding.”

Vajpayee’s blunder compounded Nehru’s 1954 mistake in implicitly accepting, in the Panchsheel Treaty, China’s annexation of Tibet, without securing (or even seeking) recognition of the then-existing Indo-Tibetan border. In fact, under the treaty, India forfeited all of the extraterritorial rights and privileges in Tibet that it had inherited from imperial Britain.

As agreed in the pact, India withdrew its “military escorts” from Tibet, and conceded to the Chinese government, at a “reasonable” price, the postal, telegraph, and public telephone services operated by the Indian government in the “ Tibet region of China.” For its part, China repeatedly violated the eight-year pact, ultimately mounting the trans-Himalayan invasion of 1962.

In short, China used the Panchsheel Treaty to outwit and humiliate India. Yet, just this summer, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new government sent Vice President Hamid Ansari to Beijing to participate in the treaty’s 60th anniversary celebrations.

Ansari was accompanied by Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who, during her stay, signed an agreement allowing China – without any quid pro quo – to establish industrial parks in India. This will exacerbate existing imbalances in the bilateral trade relationship – China currently exports to India three times more than it imports from the country, with most of these imports being raw materials – thereby exposing India to increased strategic pressure and serving China’s interest in preventing India’s rise as a peer competitor.

The fact that the spotlight is now on China’s Tibet-linked claim to Arunachal Pradesh, rather than on Tibet’s status, underscores China’s dominance in setting the bilateral agenda. Given India’s dependence on cross-border water flows from Tibet, it could end up paying a heavy price.

Embarrassed by China’s relentless border violations – according to Indian Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju, there were 334 in the first 216 days of this year – India has recently drawn a specious distinction between “transgressions” and “intrusions” that enables it to list all of the breaches simply as transgressions. But word play will get India nowhere.

A reminder of that came at July’s BRICS summit of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, when, yet again, China emerged ahead of India. The BRICS’ New Development Bank, it was announced, will be headquartered in Shanghai, not New Delhi; India’s consolation prize was that an Indian will serve as the Bank’s first president.

Under pressure from an unyielding and revanchist China, India urgently needs to craft a prudent and carefully calibrated counter-strategy. For starters, India could rescind its recognition of Chinese sovereignty over Tibet, while applying economic pressure through trade, as China has done to Japan and the Philippines when they have challenged its territorial claims. By hinging China’s market access on progress in resolving political, territorial and water disputes, India can prevent China from fortifying its leverage.

Moreover, India must be willing to respond to Chinese incursions by sending troops into strategic Chinese-held territory. This would raise the stakes for Chinese border violations, thereby boosting deterrence.

Finally, India must consider carefully the pretense of partnership with China that it is forming through trade and BRICS agreements – at least until a more balanced bilateral relationship emerges. After all, neither booming trade nor membership in the BRICS club offers protection from bullying.

Brahma Chellaney is a professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate © (www.project-syndicate.org).

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