Trailokya Raj Aryal
The Kathmandu Post
December 2, 2012
There is a lot of speculation among China watchers in Nepal that Chinese policy toward Nepal will change during the tenure of Xi Jinping. There are many who seem to believe that the new set of Chinese leaders will give more priority to Nepal than the outgoing team of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao and some even mistakenly believe that Chinese involvement in Nepal, including our internal politics, will grow. This line of thinking is nothing but giving ourselves more importance than we deserve and only proves that we have failed to understand the profound changes taking place in Sino-Indian relations.
Nepal is not going to figure prominently in Chinese foreign policy or strategic map during the tenure of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang for the simple reason that China would not want to upset the Indian policy or would want to come across as interfering in India’s backyard. Although we may see an increase in high-level visits from China and vice-versa, it will not signal a significant change in policy.
If the recent remark made by the Chinese Ambassador to Nepal, Yang Houlan on November 30 at the Reporter’s Club is any indication, the Chinese side will work with the Indian government and devise its Nepal policy accordingly (actually such a process, by the ambassador’s own admission, is already on). And this may not necessarily be bad for Nepal’s interests if both our neighbours are on the same page on what ought to be done in Nepal. This will also silence those voices who believe that Nepal can use the China Card while dealing with India.
We may have enjoyed goodwill among the earlier set of Chinese leaders who remembered Nepal’s support to China’s membership in the United Nations and its unflinching support to one-China when many countries were reluctant to do so. However, even then, the Chinese leaders had only one piece of advice to Nepal: maintain good relations with India. Not that our ties with India were bad but the Chinese leaders’ emphasising our need to maintain good ties with India was a way to assure the Indian side that China harboured no plans to upset its traditional role in Nepal. For the new set of Chinese leaders taking charge at a time when China is the second largest economy and a power to reckon with, Nepal is just another neighbour that contributes little to China’s interests. On the contrary, by not doing what the Chinese side wants regarding pro-Tibet independence activities in Nepal, in the Chinese perspective, Nepal rather adds to China’s security woes.
In this context, China wants to see political stability in Nepal and is well aware of the fact that without India’s help, Nepal is unlikely to get a strong and stable government that will take its security concerns seriously. The Chinese Ambassador’s admission gives credence to the view that their foreign policy is made out of necessity and is a wake-up call to Nepal’s politicians and policy-makers who seem to believe that foreign policy is created out of sympathy or is based on history.
Of all its neighbours, India matters a lot to China, not only for its trade interests but because many of China’s regional objectives, including but not limited to, access to the Indian Ocean and stability in Afghanistan after the US-NATO coalition’s withdrawal depends on India’s active co-operation and support. (China fears that an unstable Afghanistan will provide safe haven to terrorist outfits demanding an independent East Turkistan in what is now the Chinese province of Xinjiang.) The Chinese side knows that if it asserts itself forcefully in South Asia and in the post-political reforms of Burma, the Indian side might take it as an affront, thereby seriously affecting Sino-Indian ties and would risk proxy wars in the region—a lose-lose situation for all. Therefore, to maintain good relations with India, it will not want to be seen as going-it-alone or asserting power in the region. With a segment in India contemplating forging a strategic alliance with the US directed against China, the Chinese know very well that they need to move with caution in South Asia in general and Nepal in particular, where India has been a dominant international player for years.
This is not to say that China wants to distance itself from Nepal in the days ahead. China, as befitting an emerging world power will want to have its presence felt in Nepal and promote more cultural understanding and assist us in our development efforts, but, as always, it will not want to impose itself on Nepal at India’s expense. According to a recently published book on China, Restless Empire: China and the World Since 1750 by the London School of Economics historian, Odd Arne Westad, although India is concerned with growing Chinese activities in Nepal, “..in Beijing there is a growing understanding of the need to take India’s security concerns into consideration.” Incidentally, the Chinese Ambassador’s remark came at a time when an Indian magazine posted a report on China’s growing involvement in Nepal and its security implications for India on its website. Perhaps, the ambassador was trying to allay Indian concerns or make it clear to Nepal that it should have realistic expectations from China in the days ahead. Whatever the reasons behind the ambassador’s remark, there is a lesson for us: accept the changing reality and revamp our policy to deal with both India and China trilaterally.
Aryal holds a BA degree in Chinese Studies and MA in International Relations. He is associated with the Kathmandu University
