Yubaraj Ghimire
The Indian Express
April 22, 2013
As Nepal waits for elections, Beijing is stepping up its engagement.
Nepal’s political actors usually play hide-and-seek with the people. That the country has not had local body elections for the last 15 years and that the election to the second Constituent Assembly is promised for November, after the first one failed to deliver a constitution, makes it easy for the leaders to avoid the people for now. But for how long?
As in any country too dependent on the outside world, Nepal’s leaders are making frequent visits abroad to convince other states that “we are on the right track and heading towards the right destination”. The “right track” at the moment is the CA election under the chief justice, and the right destination is the delivery of the much-promised “People’s Constitution”. Since the track was a common agenda of the four major parties, in full endorsement of major donors and the international community — including the US, EU and India — the outside world has to share the optimism of the Nepali actors.
Maoist Chief Prachanda embarked on a week-long visit to China, beginning April 14, to seek China’s involvement in Nepal as part of his vague vision of a “joint strategic and developmental partnership”. China, as per the Maoist account, promised all support for Nepal’s development and constitution-making. But it’s also a message that India’s decisive, if not monopolistic, influence in Nepal on security and strategic matters is clearly on the wane, with China emerging as an equal player. India is perceived as too focused on Nepal’s internal politics, especially during the last eight years of high hope and poor delivery on political stability and economic growth. Moreover, China has strong reservations about the Maoist agenda of “ethnic federalism” and the principle of strong provinces and weak centres as endorsed by many European countries, as well as India .
While leaders of other parties are also to visit China soon, Prachanda will be making a trip to Delhi, ostensibly to give the assurance that the Maoist party does not believe in cultivating China at the cost of India any more. But to the larger world, including China, the Maoist leadership works more closely with India. China deliberately chose not to invite Prachanda’s deputy, Baburam Bhattarai, during the nearly two years of his premiership, apparently because of that suspicion.
China’s invitation to top Nepali leaders also indicates it’s going to adopt a policy of high-level engagement with Nepal, slightly different from India’s officialdom. Moreover, China has told Prachanda that under no circumstances should the Western world be “instigating Tibetans” in Nepal. China is clearly asserting itself.
Frequent interactions with the international community may be a much-needed exercise for Nepal’s players. But for the situation to be conducive to a free and fair election, it will require wider and honest coordination among parties, followed by their courage to go to the people. At least three influential parties — the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum and Federal Socialist Party — have not only refused to participate, but they have also demanded the immediate removal of the CJ-led government, which is a prestige issue for the four major parties and their international allies. Elections do not look possible when the major parties are so rigidly positioned.
Aware of the likely mass hostility, Prachanda announced before leaving for China that he was going to get big investments from the north and the south, which would generate huge employment. Given the regular habits of Nepali leaders to promise and not deliver, people are not taking these promises seriously any more. Prachanda and the four parties will have to realise that while it may be possible to mislead the people for some time, ultimately they will be judged by what they say and do or do not do.
