Ashok K Mehta
The Pioneer
December 25, 2013
This time around, the Constitution has to be delivered within the stipulated one year. India could lead or join an informal contact group to assist Kathmandu in maintaining political stability in the neighbouring country.
Preoccupied with State elections, Indians failed to observe Nepal’s recent second election to a Constituent Assembly, the first having failed to deliver a Constitution, unarguably the Maoist agenda of the decade-long civil war. Democratising Nepal and mainstreaming the Maoists are work in progress, though the successful integration of Armies is a stellar achievement of the peace process. I am just back from a post-election research from different parts of Nepal where people were brutally frank in explaining why they punished the Maoists.
Election results stunned everyone, more or less reversing the results of the first CA election, dethroning the Maoists from their enviable high perch. Maoists were part of every Government except one and their Madhesi compatriots, the real king-makers in all dispensations. Both have been penalised by the voter for overzealously projecting identity-based federalism while not explaining how this was to be achieved. That was not all. In many places, Maoists actually put a gun to the villagers’ heads, demanding food, valuables and, most of all, the vote. ‘If you don’t vote for us we will get to know’. “Still we gave them the benefit of doubt… we thought they would bring in New Nepal”, said the villagers. The return of the traditional parties — the Nepali Congress and the United Marxist Leninist — described by the new progressive groups as regressive and status quoist, marks a shift in power balance from Left to Centre and a national sentiment towards moderation.
Apparently not gracious in defeat, Push Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ accused the electoral process of fraud once results indicated that the Maoists were in for a drubbing. The Indians called the Chinese and told them that the elections must not be undermined by their erstwhile protégés as a new election would invite unimaginable political instability. By evening the Chinese issued a statement endorsing the elections. Incredibly, the Maoists lost all the 10 seats in Kathmandu valley, including that of Prachanda who scrambled to the CA from the Terai. Their vote share dropped from 30 per cent to 15 per cent. A senior NC leader subsequently observed that the Maoists should now talk according to their oukaat (stature).
The Baidya ‘Dash’ Maoists split in 2012 after the integration of Armies, abandoning the Prachanda ‘Cash’ Maoists (UCPN-M) on ostensibly ideological grounds, forming the CPN-M. Baidya reverted to the doctrine of People’s Revolt for capturing power while boycotting the CA elections with bombs and bluster. He did not allow a single vote to be cast in his stronghold Thabang in Rolpa. A third, tinier, group is Maitrika Yadav’s Bracket Maoists, the CPN(M), which is in intellectual hiberation. Baidya has reneged on all previous agreements including the Magna Carta of the peace process and continues harping on a round table while cheekily aspiring for his party to be represented in the new CA. The Royalist Rashtra Prajatantra Party (N) led by tennis ace Kamal Thapa has become the fourth largest party winning 24 seats through proportional representation via the Cow election symbol, which represents the demand for a Hindu state but not necessarily the return of monarchy. A Madhesi party with the Ox as its election symbol cashed in, as many voters mistook the ox for the cow.
Clearly, serious challenges confront the new CA as the focus has once again shifted to Government formation rather than drafting the Constitution. Already the NC and the UML have expressed differences due to their mere 21-seat gap, inevitably leading to horse-trading. Another 26 members are to be nominated to the Government on the recommendation of the parties. All this could take another month at least, which means that two months would have been consumed reordering a Government. Justifying accommodating the Baidya boys will not be intellectually easy, while keeping them outside the Constitution-drafting process will be unwise. Alternately, increasing the size of the CA from 601 to 650 members by amending the interim Constitution; establishing a Constitution Advisory Commission; including Baidya members in the ‘nominated’ category, are the options. But these options will reward unethical anti-election behaviour. Still, it will keep Maoists locked in the democratic process to ensure they don’t return to the jungle.
A serious impediment in forging consensus and compromise essential for tackling the residual ticklish issues of basis of federalism and form of Government will be the absence of strong leadership. Elements of Prachanda’s style and charisma essential to steer the debate are not known to be endowments of potential NC prime ministerial candidates Sushil Koirala and Sher Bahadur Deuba, a four-time Prime Minister whose strategic autonomy was usurped by the King. Balancing consensus with the election mandate will be another tricky issue. Fortunately, according to the 11-point agreement among political parties prior to the elections, all subjects relating to the Constitution on which there was consensus in the previous CA, would be treated as accomplished.
The Baidya people have played their card well, probably eating their cake and having it too. They evaded testing their popularity at the hustings. The threat to take up arms in the event of an urban people’s revolt ensures their political relevance. A return to the mother party is as unlikely in the short-term as Prachanda being able to break the Baidya group. Their perennial cry of ‘foreign interference’ and sovereign autonomy has a certain resonance among the urban youth and intellectuals dreaming of a New Nepal. Baidya is seen by many as taking his inspirational directions from Beijing as the latter is engaged in a balancing act between desired stability and proclaimed non-interference in Nepal’s internal affairs.
The Dash Maoists, who have been proliferating anti-India sentiments, have to be tamed and transformed towards pluralistic politics, like the Cash Maoists have been to a significant extent. New Delhi cannot afford to ignore them any more. Equally, political parties must engage them in a constructive dialogue to find them a place in the CA.
The task of CA II is infinitely more complex than that of CA I. While India will continue to deal with Nepal bilaterally as its preferred mode, and possibly go it alone as in 2005 in brokering an agreement, it could also lead or join an informal contact group to assist Kathmandu in maintaining political stability vital for completing the new draft constitution. Ideally, Nepalese should call for a facilitator.
While consensus does not translate into unanimity, a two- thirds majority required for the Constitution is not achieving consensus. Yet, this time around the Constitution must be delivered within the stipulated one year.
