Angela Meng
South China Morning Post
April 19, 2015
Challenges include terrorism and uncertainty over China’s economic growth, says scholar.
President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote address last month focusing on China’s vision for the Silk Road initiatives. Photo: Kyodo
The threat of terrorist groups and uncertainty over China’s future economic growth are some of the challenges facing the nation’s New Silk Road initiatives, says a scholar at a Chinese government think tank.
Many factors inside China and beyond had to be considered before the US$40-billion Silk Road infrastructure fund can “break the connectivity bottleneck” in Asia, according to Shi Ze, a senior fellow at the China Institute of International Studies. The concepts of the New Silk Road Economic Belt, which runs from China across Central Asia and Russia to Europe, and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, through the Malacca Strait to India, the Middle East and East Africa were put forward by President Xi Jinping during overseas visits in 2013.
Xi delivered a keynote address last month focusing on China’s vision for the initiatives, aimed at improving infrastructure and boosting trade ties in Asia and beyond. Investment will be funded through the Silk Road Fund and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a new international lending institution proposed by China.
Shi said Islamic militants were active in countries in Central Asia such as Turkmenistan and this posed a threat to future investment.
“The road ahead is paved with difficulties. The terrorist organisation Islamic State poses a great threat to the New Silk Road,” he said.
President Xi said during his meeting with his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov last year that the two countries should jointly fight terrorism, separatism and extremism.
The London-based International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence said in a report that an estimated 360 Turkmen fighters had joined Islamic State since 2012.
“Several nations in Central Asia, such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, are led by men over the age of 70 so it’s not clear who will take over if the older leaders are unable to do so anymore,” Shi said.
“This puts many of China’s investments in the area at risk.”
Shi also questioned if China would have the financial clout to invest heavily in overseas infrastructure projects amid a slowing economy. The country’s gross domestic product grew at its slowest rate for six years in the first three months of this year.
“In an ever-changing economy, can China keep a steady growth rate? That’s a big question,” he said.
Shi said there was also the risk that the United States would not support, or would even oppose, the New Silk Road initiatives to ensure its own influence remained high in Asia.
The United States introduced its own New Silk Road initiative in 2011 to help Afghanistan integrate into the region. The initiative focuses on building a regional energy market, improving trade, transport, customs and border procedures, and business ties.
“Throughout history, China has very rarely come up with large-scale forms of co-operation such as this, so there’s some uncertainty,” said Shi.
“Through my travels, people have asked, what is the model of co-operation? Do we establish an organisation? What are the set rules?
“There are many challenges and risks, but we shouldn’t expect to solve them in a year or two. Maybe it’ll take a decade, maybe it’ll take a generation.”
