Ei Ei Toe Lwin
Myanmar Times
June 8, 2015
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi makes her first visit to China this week, a trip that analysts say could help soothe strained bilateral relations but also present the opposition leader with domestic pitfalls.
Opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi speaks to the media during a press conference at the National League for Democracy headquarters in Yangon on July 3, 2012. Photo: AFP
The Chinese Communist Party and the National League for Democracy have confirmed that she would meet President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang during her five-day visit, which starts on June 10.
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will be joined by her chief of staff, Daw Tin Mar Aung, and two members of parliament, U Phyo Min Thein and U Phyo Zayar Thaw.
The Myanmar democracy icon has made a series of high-profile trips to Asia, Europe and the United States since her release from house arrest in late 2010 but this will be her first to China. Beijing appears keen to court those politicians seen as likely to play leading roles after the November elections, and has previously welcomed delegations from the NLD, ethnic minority parties and the Union Solidarity and Development Party.
Her visit to Beijing comes at a time of heightened tensions along the shared border where the Tatmadaw and ethnic Chinese rebels in the Kokang region have been engaged in fierce fighting for the past four months. Tens of thousands of civilians have fled across the border. Last week China launched what are believed to be unprecedented live-fire military exercises along the same stretch of frontier, in what some observers saw as a warning to the Tatmadaw to stop the conflict from spilling over into its territory.
Political commentator U Yan Myo Thein, author of a book on the triangular relationship between Myanmar, China and the US, said that China believes it can safeguard its strategic interests in Myanmar against competition from the West by fostering a relationship with the Oxford-educated NLD leader.
“According to my research, it is the first time the Chinese Communist Party has invited the leader of an opposition party who is also a Nobel peace laureate. They never made such an invitation before,” he said.
“I believe to some extent the visit would help resolve military tensions across the border, even if they cannot be resolved completely,” he said.
He said there were “high hopes” from the trip, but talks would likely cover such sensitive and controversial projects as the Letpadaung copper mine and the Myitsone dam, as well as the border conflict.
One of the first major acts of President U Thein Sein’s new semi-civilian government in 2011 was to suspend the Chinese-led Myitsone project, a move that Beijing interpreted as an early and alarming sign that Myanmar intended to reorient its foreign policy toward the US.
“Daw Aung San Suu Kyi must be very cautious and clever when these sensitive issues come to the table. If she puts a foot wrong, she would face challenges in local politics and this would probably have an impact in the elections,” U Yan Myo Thein added.
U Thein Sein suspended the dam project until the end of his presidential term early next year. China is already lobbying for the project to be restarted and some politicians believe Daw Aung San Suu Kyi could be persuaded to back it.
During protests against the proposed dam in August 2011, the NLD leader issued her “Irrawaddy Appeal” calling for protection of the vital waterway. Noting the “established tradition of mutual regard and friendship” between Myanmar and China, she urged both sides to “reassess” the project.
Similarly, as chair of a special parliamentary commission on the controversial Chinese-backed Letpadaung copper mine, Daw Aung Sann Suu Kyi called for improvements and safeguards to the project but recommended its resumption. The Chinese companies welcomed her report; local villagers were furious.
U Aye Thar Aung, a leader of the Rakhine National Party who was invited to China a year ago, is convinced Beijing will lobby her to support the restart of the Myitsone dam.
He said that while in China his delegation was briefed on the benefits of such hydropower projects.
“They openly told us they don’t want to give up the project and must try to implement it,” U Aye Thar Aung said, adding that he hoped she would not accept Chinese proposals without also considering the will of the people.
Another project that could be up for discussion is a planned US$20 billion railway linking Kyaukpyu in Rakhine State with Kunming in China, which was reportedly dropped in July 2014 due to public opposition in Myanmar. The railway would have broadly followed the route of newly built oil and gas pipelines connecting China to the Indian Ocean.
