Ralph Jennings
Forbes
June 16, 2015
The favorite to win Taiwan’s presidential race next year has made two pledges that would avoid irritating old enemy China. But Chinese officials have said mysteriously little about the statements earlier this month by opposition Democratic Progressive Party candidate Tsai Ing-wen. Beijing’s leadership insists that China and Taiwan eventually come under the same flag, ending nearly seven decades of Taiwanese self-rule.
Tsai moved to ease new fears of a breakaway Taiwan June 3 by saying she would uphold the constitution, which blocks de jure independence for the island of 23 million people. She would also take cues from two decades of “accumulated outcomes” from talks and exchanges with Beijing. “If elected I will push for peaceful and stable of the development of cross-Strait relations in accordance with the will of the Taiwanese people and the existing…constitutional order,” Tsai said in a speech to the Center for Strategic & International Studies think tank in the United States.
Dr. Tsai Ing-wen, Chair of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party and a presidential nominee, takes her seat for an interview during an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies June 3, 2015 in Washington, DC. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)
Far from applause, China would make a note of Tsai’s pledge only to use it against her later if she’s elected in January and takes office in May. The Communist leaders will otherwise ignore the comments because they don’t trust anything except what she would actually do as president. They generally prefer the other major Taiwanese political party because it advocates closer relations with China, not more autonomy. The wait-and-watch approach toward Tsai adds to odds of a flatline in relations that have warmed since 2008, bringing economic perks to the island’s half-trillion-dollar economy if Tsai takes office.
“Many in the mainland (China) say that she may well say one thing during the campaign and then do something quite different if elected,” says Alan Romberg, East Asia Program director with the Stimson Institute, a think tank in Washington. “So they will be wary of taking any statements at face value, even if they are open to somewhat flexible interpretation. Tsai hopes that these phrases are open to broad enough interpretation for the mainland to live with, if not love.”
Tsai is tipped to win the election because today’s ruling Nationalist Party lost a staggering nine mayoral and county magistrate races last year and has not picked a candidate for 2016. Today’s Nationalist President Ma Ying-jeou has enchanted China by shelving politics to set up dialogue on trade, transit and investment, generating 21 deals. The two sides at the outset agreed to see each other as part of a single China, with different interpretations, a condition that Tsai’s party rejects. (Ma must step down next year due to term limits.) Much of the support for Tsai’s party support comes from Taiwanese who distrust China and prefer stronger self-rule. At least while campaigning, Tsai must mind those supporters, likewise the benefits of economic ties with China and Washington’s hopes for peaceful relations.
“She probably has something in her mind that’s best to say, but she’s running for the election and tries to get the support of everybody,” says Shane Lee, international relations professor at Chang Jung Christian University in Taiwan.
China may worry that even if Tsai keeps her word while in office, her leadership could strengthen the party itself. The Democratic Progressive Party advocated legal independence from China when it ruled from 2000 to 2008. Ex-president Chen Shui-bian angered Beijing those years with suggestions Taiwan formally declare statehood. “Tsai’s constitutional stance is small comfort to Beijing, as she and her party still support formal Taiwan independence — maybe not while she’s in office, but some day,” says Sean King, senior vice president with the consultancy Park Strategies in New York and Taipei.
