New Delhi Times
April 29, 2014
People say that if you find water rising up to your ankle, that’s the time to do something about it, not when it’s around your neck.
-Chinua Achebe
No pun intended with the quote but with current scarcity of water if we do witness the water wars in our lifetime we will only be hypothetically neck deep in water. Fresh water will be the cause of the next massive war in the world; it will be the diamonds of the next century. For those who have taken water for granted till now sit up, there may be a day when we might have to send our platoons to ensure that we have water and that day may not be far away. To understand the water war I will have to give a geographical and political background.
Where does South Asia get most of her fresh water from?
The answer lies sandwiched between India and china in the Tibetan Plateau. Two main river systems, the Ganges and the Indus originate from the glaciers found there. Some of the World’s greatest rivers originate from there.
The Tibetan Plateau, the highest plateau in the world has always been in the centre of conflict, its strategic location and rich resources made it easy picking for the marauders. At its current length of 2,400 km from east to west and 1,448km from north to south, the Himalayas form much of its boundary in the south. The biggest impact Tibet has on South Asia is the freshwater source that flows out from the melted glacier. Tibet has become a battleground for the two Asian superpowers India and China and most of South Asia. The stakes of this battle being very high, almost two billion lives. As always any Asian flashpoint has to involve China.
What is China’s role?
China the dominant country in question consists mostly of arid land; one quarter of China’s land is deserts and adding to China’s woes is the high level of pollution of Chinese rivers making the water not fit for consumption for this populous country. Therein China is constantly looking out for fresh water for their 1.3 billion citizens; with control over Tibet they may be controlling the fate of over another 2 billion people in their neighboring countries, which are referred to as downstream countries. The Chinese have been building dams so aggressively; as one subject matter expert put it China has built more dams in the last five decades than the rest of the World combined. Diverting the Tibetan rivers internally into China the impact of these diversions is far reaching.
So how worried should we be?
Demand for water will double in India and China in the next two decades and the World Bank estimates that by 2050 India will be facing the largest water shortage, with most of the fresh water resources depleted. With climate changes and erratic monsoons most Indian famers already claim to be living in a water apocalypse where they have witnessed murders because of water.
Even China’s desert regions have been facing severe water shortage and why that should worry us is because well for one China is the only country that hasn’t signed any kind of water treaty with its neighbors. Even India and Pakistan with its tumultuous past have the Indus water treaty which ensures that India only uses 20% of the water. With the annexation of Tibet, China now has full control over this prime geographical land which provides livelihood and life to billions around, with Tibet as its own China can do as it deems fit for its own country calling it an ‘internal matter’ even at the risk of endangering lives.
Another cultural angle besides the necessity of water is that in the Indian subcontinent Water is considered holy and its rivers are sacred, so if these rivers dry up due to China or any other country’s interference. It will definitely become a flashpoint in Asia.
Bangladesh and other Asian countries
While India depends on the Indus and the Brahmaputra and utilizes these rivers for hydroelectric projects too, India has its own rivers originating from the Western Ghats. Bangladesh on the other hand will suffer majorly if India Sino relations sour over water since the Brahmaputra enters India from China at Arunachal Pradesh and then proceeds through Assam to flow into Bangladesh and this country formerly known as East Pakistan depends heavily on this river almost 91% of water in Bangladesh comes from outside.
China’s Mekong River is shared by Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand and China has been actively building dams upstream, almost 60 million people depend on this river for livelihood, health, food and affect the biodiversity of these countries.
Imagine trading in water instead of currency. Imagine a world where having a glass of water becomes a luxury. Imagine how dirty we and the world would be without water. Imagine killing people for water and imagine us living in that world. While imagining this myself all I could see was a place that looked a lot like hell without a man with horns leading us.
People reading this could call me dramatic but just sit back and soak this in Water Wars are a very likely possibility it’s not a matter of ‘if’ or ‘how’ it’s a matter of ‘when’. Not just in South Asia but all over the World. Our resources are drying up and it’s now a matter of finding alternative solutions and protecting our rivers because we’re already neck deep in hypothetical water.
