Rajiv Bhatia : Tue May 22 2012, 02:31 hrs
PM’s historic visit should be tempered with pragmatism
As Manmohan Singh prepares for his historic visit to Myanmar towards the end of May, the first by an Indian prime minister in a quarter-century, there should be clarity on the nature of change in Myanmar — and its limits. In June last year, even Myanmar experts laughed off the possibility of such a visit. By then Aung San Suu Kyi had been freed from house arrest, but she was yet to be part of the reform train. It was only after her meeting with President Thein Sein in August that she came on board. Their understanding gave a fillip to changes that now include the entry of the National League for Democracy into the parliament as the largest opposition party.
Singh would have noted what UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said recently: “Today I return to a new Myanmar… a Myanmar that is making history.” But, on closer scrutiny, the trajectory of change looks erratic. Otherwise, it would be difficult to explain the recent controversy before the swearing-in. Similarly, the resignation of the vice-president, Tin Aung Myint Oo, on “health grounds” (read: dismissal on policy differences) is the clearest indication of a continuing power struggle between reformers and conservatives. A substantial number of political prisoners still languish in jails. No wonder that Suu Kyi does not go beyond expressing her “cautious optimism” about the future. The government claims that change is “irreversible” now, but many remain unconvinced.
The complexity of change is reflected in the world’s reactions. There has been an avalanche of VIP visits to Myanmar, an almost unseemly scramble for photo-ops. The lure of the market and geopolitical considerations seem to have trumped the ideological zeal for a pro-democracy agenda. The EU has rushed to suspend sanctions for a year. Japan has written off debts worth $3.7 billion. The US has perhaps been a little more calibrated: it has suspended sanctions on trade and investment and appointed an ambassador after 22 years, but it takes the view that “there is far more to be done”. Myanmar’s closest ally in the past two decades, China, has discovered the virtues of silence and
unusual diffidence.
Against this backdrop, Manmohan Singh might focus on the big picture as he sits down with Thein Sein in the gilded conference hall in the new capital. Even though the president has received many foreign dignitaries in the past year, he is certain to set aside ample time for the interaction with Singh. India is not only the second most important neighbour, but it can also fulfil Myanmar’s ambition to be “the bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia”, as Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin told me in January. We may be engrossed in our political and economic difficulties but, viewed from Naypyidaw, India is a big power, a key emerging economy and a land that wields enormous cultural and spiritual influence on the people’s imagination.
As the PM presents a credible vision of our Look-East Policy, Myanmar’s special place in it and the country’s inextricable linkage with our Northeast, he should hold the full attention of his interlocutors. He would elaborate on the big picture — history, geopolitics, strategic partnership and a blueprint for economic and people-to-people cooperation for the next decade — leaving to others the task of devising the details of projects, old and new. More than anything, India should promise what it can deliver and adhere to commitments and deadlines.
The second big meeting the PM will have, the one that will cause even greater media excitement, will undoubtedly be the one with Suu Kyi. Meeting two days after the 48th death anniversary of Jawaharlal Nehru, the two leaders would have much to draw on: from Buddha to Gandhi to Mandela. Oxford is another shared bond. India cannot fulfil all of Suu Kyi’s expectations, but as long as she and Thein Sein work together, New Delhi will have little difficulty in extending whatever assistance Naypyidaw needs.
Singh has been deeply conscious of the value of India’s eastern connections. His visit will no doubt strengthen India’s multi-dimensional relationship with Myanmar, but its impact will go far beyond. Asean and all P5 nations will watch this visit with a microscope. The South Block has an amazing opportunity to lead, by reading Myanmar accurately, responding to the needs of time, and contributing to peace and development in the neighbourhood. Playing for high stakes, Prime Minster Singh, known in the region for his wisdom and sincerity, has more than an even chance to succeed.
The writer, former envoy to Myanmar, is a visiting senior research fellow, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore,
