Ashok K. Mehta
The Pioneer
December 10, 2014
While India-Pakistan tensions clouded Saarc proceedings, the Chinese were active — being pushed for their elevation from an observer to a dialogue partner by Islamabad. China influences the commercial quarters.
One country where the ‘neighbourhood first’ policy and Modi magic are working is Nepal. Returning from the Dhulikhel retreat during the recent Saarc summit to Soaltee Hotel, Prime Minister Narendra Modi put his security staff in a tizzy by stopping the car near Kalimati, plunging into the crowd and pumping hands with eager bystanders. “Modi Sir has really captured our hearts and minds!” said Gopaldai, my driver and political guide in Kathmandu. As the nearly-failed Saarc summit became a side event for Mr Modi and his team, the India-Nepal bilateral stole the show with a dozen pacts being signed. Six months of the Modi Government have been a transformational period; Mr Modi indicating that Nepal is India’s lead country. Gopaldai figures that what could not happen in 60 years is unfolding in just six months. The process of removing misperceptions, addressing grievances and addressing differences has begun. Though Sanju Upadhyaya in his book, Raj Lives On, and CK Lal in his column have said to the effect that whoever rules Nepal has to secure India’s blessings and be cognisant of its legitimate security concerns, the new relationship is only evolving. Willy nilly, Kathmandu is using the Beijing card subtly.
The second visit by Mr Modi developed hiccups over his proposed visit to Janakpur, Lumbini and Muktinath. Not only were there differences within the Koirala Cabinet, expressed notably by Foreign Minister Mahendra Bahadur Pandey, on Nepal’s TV24 but also certain discomfort egged on by China was apparent. Still, a surfeit of agreements ranging from Upper Karnali and Arun III hydel projects being awarded to GMR and Satluj, and the funding of the line of credit of $1 billion to permitting use of Rs1,000 and Rs500 currency notes which had created havoc at border crossings, and road and rail connectivity overshadowed the cancellation of the Janakpur visit which disappointed many Madhesis. The power trade agreement, the first with any country, resulted from eight rounds of inter-ministerial dialogue. For the Motor Vehicle Agreement, 21 routes have been found commercial; power transmission lines been upgraded to enhance capacity from 50MW to 500MW; and pipelines and railway lines are in the works. Above all, Prime Minister Modi’s commitment to respect Nepal’s sovereignty and engage Kathmandu politically are highly lauded.
Mr Modi’s counsel to write the Constitution by January 22, 2015, through consensus, as sought by the new political actors like Maoists, Madhesis and Janjatis, rather than through voting favoured by the old ruling elite, caused a flutter among them. He added: “If that was not done, amendments would be required, as in the case of the Constitution of India”. The Indian embassy is quite confident the Constitution will be completed on time though others are less optimistic. Behind the scenes, New Delhi is involved in brokering a compromise on contentious issues in the Constitution, as it has done several times in the past since 1950. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval skipped a few Saarc events to interact with the severely fractured political formations to urge them not to fail another deadline, as this would disappoint the people of the Nepal.
While India-Pakistan tensions clouded Saarc proceedings, the Chinese were active — being pushed for their elevation from an observer to a dialogue partner by Islamabad. If India dominates the political scene in Kathmandu, China influences the commercial quarters. Beijing has broken its self-imposed taboo of not interfering in Nepal’s internal affairs. The transition from old to new Nepal has created the political and strategic space for this especially following the Maoists coming to power. China is now seeking parity with India in almost every sector like Bilateral Investment Protection Agreement, 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship and engaging in development projects in all the 75 districts of Nepal. For the first time, it has entered the hydropower sector with the Three Gorges Company securing the West Seti hydro project which is yet to take off. It may need to enter a joint venture with India to sell power to it. Twenty new Chinese enterprises have come up with $100 million investment and new cultural centres are coming up. China’s soft power is evident as it cultivates local radio and media very effectively.
It appears to have broken off red lines too of no presence in the Terai. It is not only cultivating leaders, especially the second generation of all political parties, but lately the Madhesis also in a big way, showering gifts and funds. China’s interest now extends beyond Tibet as it casts its gaze over the strategic Indo-Gangetic Plains, the heart of India. It has bagged contracts to construct international airports in Pokhara and barely 150 miles south, in the Bhairava plains. It is reported that China is training and equipping the Armed Police Force, created by the late King Birendra to fight the Maoists. Indian officials are not unduly worried about China’s fresh overtures to Nepal. They believe Beijing cannot realistically compete with New Delhi, especially in Nepal, despite the enlargement of its interests and presence.
Unlike the scattered anti-India sentiment, there is hardly any negative reportage of China. In the countryside, every-day use goodies like umbrellas, pen-torch lighters and slippers are sold cheap. Lately, godless Chinese have sought to use Buddhism as an instrument of foreign policy and have partly outsourced winning hearts and minds to the Lhasa Government. Tibet Air will soon fly to Nepal.
Chinese arms for the Nepal Army probably remains the red line. Recall the midnight transhipment of Chinese anti-aircraft guns and other automatic weapons to Kathmandu in 1989, which led to the economic blockade that triggered the movement for restoration of democracy the following year. On some issues though, India and China are on the same page: Writing of the Constitution on time, eschewing ethnicity-based federalism and discouraging ‘One Madhes One Pradesh’. Having backed King Gyanendra to the hilt when he executed his 2005 coup and condemned the Maoists as anti-state and mischief-mongers, Beijing suddenly rediscovered ideological congruence with them as soon as it sensed their coming to power. Now it questions why Tibetans are called refugees and asserts “nothing is irreversible” — whatever that means.
While India is regarded by the West as the lead player in Nepal, China will sooner than later, challenge this appellation. India cannot be complacent and will need to work the Modi magic to ensure that influence and goodwill are institutionalised. India has to strive to do better than China in delivery, and to never forget Nepal’s critical geography.
