China Daily
April 2, 2013
Leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa discussed topics ranging from infrastructure, agriculture and healthcare to energy development and climate change at the fifth BRICS summit in Durban. But what has caught the world’s attention is the proposal to establish a BRICS development bank, aimed at providing a financing channel exclusively for developing countries.
So will BRICS become a center of power that can break the existing world order, which is marked by Western dominance and US hegemony?
It is too early to hazard a guess. But over the past decade, especially since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the five countries’ economic performance has been impressive. BRICS member states now account for more than 20 percent of the global GDP and over one-sixth of the world trade.
An International Monetary Fund report says the combined GDP of BRICS member states will catch up with that of the US this year; the figure was only 27 percent 12 years ago. And during the first 10 years of this century, the average growth rate of BRICS member states was over 8 percent, more than three times that of the developed countries’ 2.6 percent and almost twice the global average of 4.1 percent.
IMF data show that BRICS’ contribution to annual world economic growth was 40 percent, 34 percent and 79 percent in the past three years. Together, the five countries account for 43 percent of the world’s population, cover more than a quarter of the world’s land area over four continents, and hold as much as $4.4 trillion of foreign reserves. BRICS member states have thus become an important force promoting global economic recovery.
There is little doubt that BRICS is the world’s largest and most dynamic emerging economic group, which reflects the changing pattern and outlook of the global economy. But the group has a long way to go before it can reform the world order for the better.
In the final analysis, the BRICS summit is still an economic cooperation platform evolving from the concept of an investment destination of a group of emerging economies. Though BRICS member states comprise the “world’s factory” (China), the “world’s gas station” (Russia), the “world’s office” (India), the “world’s raw material base” (Brazil) and “Africa’s bridgehead” (South Africa), their geographical distance, different stages of economic development and domestic issues are hurdles in the way of deeper cooperation.
All the five countries are regional powers, but history has left almost all of them to deal with territorial disputes and/or internal problems. For example, Russia is battling with the Chechnya problem and trying to find ways to deal with its pro-US neighbors; China has territorial disputes with Japan, India and some Southeast Asian countries; India has territorial disputes with China and Pakistan; and Brazil is wary of Argentina. These energy-sapping disputes and problems can easily be used by their regional rivals and the US to contain their rise.
Moreover, China shares its borders with Russia and India both, which is matter of constant concern for it. Tensions rose on both sides of the China-India recently, and China has opposed India’s nuclear program. Also, Brazil and India have joined hands with the US to call for the yuan’s revaluation. These problems are not favorable for BRICS to make a concerted effort to counterbalance the West’s supremacy and reform the world order.
More importantly, in the short term BRICS cannot provide all the products that the world needs. As the sole superpower, the US is the founder of numerous international mechanisms and the largest exporter of many important products and services. After World War II, the US initiated and created the United Nations, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (later to become the World Trade Organization), the IMF, the World Bank and other organizations, building a US-dominated international system from the institutional level. The US also provides security and huge amounts of aid to other countries and a stable currency, which the stability of the current international system and promote development.
Besides, BRICS member states owe their rise and cooperation to the existing global order. Therefore, the idea that BRICS can become a strong force to end the US hegemony is unrealistic under the current circumstances. Plus, the cooperation among the five countries is limited to investment and trade. BRICS member states lack a common direction, common interest and a centripetal force that would facilitate total cooperation.
Nevertheless, the cooperation among BRICS member states is representative of the irresistible rise of emerging countries. It also mirrors the rising power of emerging countries and maturing of South-South cooperation, and is a small step toward breaking the dollar trap and democratizing international relations.
As President Xi Jinping said at the Durban BRICS summit, those with a common goal can be with each other despite being far apart. So BRICS member states have to resist foreign interference in their internal affairs, shelve their disputes to work together for common causes and make sustained efforts to become a powerful group that can make the world a better place.
The author is a scholar, specializing in China’s public policy and international issues.
