They say that Brahma’s dreams materialise an infinity of universes for an infinity of time. India, however, exists in a blessed state of dreamlessness: we materialise nothing. Thanks to relentless railway expansion, by 2020, China will be pressing hard against India’s northern border. Meanwhile, India continues its timeless apathy.
China’s latest is a planned Kathmandu rail link. It will also study an east-west line inside Nepal. Not that anyone in Delhi cares, but China will complete its Shigatse-Gyirong link by 2020, and Gyirong is just 84km from Kathmandu. For China, that short extension a mere detail and could be completed by 2019. Gyirong is a land port for the Nepal-Tibet trade and tourism, freeing Nepal from its traditional transport dependence on India. With the railways, the strategic situation in the north changes and we lose Nepal as a buffer.
Meanwhile, China has put under construction the 1,629km Lhasa-Nyingchi-Chengdu railway from both ends. When complete, it will take 15-hours from Chengdu to Lhasa. Currently, one has to use the 3,070km route Chengdu-Xining-Golmo-Lhasa, taking 42 hours. The 430km Lhasa-Nyingchi line will run opposite Arunachal. It is slated for 2021 completion. Why so long?
The alignment will parallel Highway G318’s 430km, which go through very difficult, seismically active terrain. Claude Arpi says the line will cost $16mn/km, with 70 per cent running on bridges or in tunnels. Its planned running speed is 160kmph. At the other end, the line from Chengdu to Kangding (Dromo) in Tibet, about 350km, will complete in 2018. Funds for the middle part have not, as far as I know, yet been authorised.
More statistics. In 2016-17 India plans to commission 2,500km of broad gauge lines (including conversions) at a cost of $15bn. In 2015, China commissioned 9,000km spending $126bn. In its 13th Plan 2016-2020, it will spend $538bn to construct 30,000km of new lines, including 11,000km of high-speed track.
The Chinese also are building a line to Yatung in the Chumbi Valley. In the west, they now have a railhead in Hotan. As yet there is no direct road link with the Aksai Chin’s highway G219. This might be 300km long when and if China decides to build it. For the long term, the Chinese plan a rail link Hotan-Shigtase. This will mean a continuous railway along our entire northern border. In contrast, it will take 40 plus years of construction to complete the 345km Jammu-Baramulla line. The Misamari-Tawang 378-line was conceived in 2011, 11 years after Golmo-Lhasa line’s construction began. The final engineering survey will likely not be complete until 2018, and who knows when the construction will start, let alone end.
We can agree that with regard to funds, there is no comparison between India and China. At the same time, between the years 1950-80, India and China had the same GDP. Now, China’s GDP is four times our GDP.
Moreover, clearly the will of correct allocation of funds reflects as much as the availability of funds. And, our will is probably below zero. Then there’s the matter of construction, where management is everything. We severely lag behind the Chinese in this respect.
The point is, we can always find an excuse for our delays: finance ministry did not provide the funds. Defence ministry says it lacks the funds. Environmental clearance was not given. It’s always a long litany of everyone pointing their finger at someone else. And yet, we think when we desire, we can get things done. The Delhi Metro is the classic example, having built 213km of rail carrying a billion passengers a year in 17 years. By contrast, the 27km first-phase Calcutta Metro took 40 years for its completion.
The military implication of these railways is obvious and ominous. One example suffices. In the fall of 1986, India planned a little adventure to retake a border post in the Tawang area. Fearing – with excellent justification – that India had larger objectives, in the winter of 1986-87, the People’s Liberation Army sent eight divisions and several independent regiments opposite Arunachal. It could not have sustained them for more than three weeks of sustained operations.
In those days, Chinese divisions were so light than even a first class regiment had just 30 trucks. With the completion of the Lhasa-Chengdu and other south Tibet branch lines, China could move 15 fully motorised and mechanised divisions from all over the country to our Northeast in four weeks, and sustain them in combat indefinitely.
The Americans, with their penchant for pithy slogans, say “You snooze, you lose.” Anyone in India awake to take that to heart?
