mmtimes.com
Chan Mya Htwe
December 14, 2015
If there is one place most ill-equipped for a mega hydropower dam holding back cascades of water, it might very well be along a fault line. Yet China’s Myitsone project is slated for such a quake-prone site not far from the Sagaing Fault.
In addition to concerns of environmental degradation and displacement, opponents of the Myitsone dam have noted that if the water storage bank were to rupture in an earthquake, the flooding would stretch so far as to inundate the Kachin State capital, Myitkyina, 27 miles away (43.4 kilometres).
U Chit Ko Ko, a geological engineer from Australia’s New South Wales University, said the earthquake risk alone should prompt a revaluation of the temporarily suspended project. The National League for Democracy government next year will be tasked with choosing to axe or continue the project, which is funded by a Chinese state-backed energy giant.
“We need to observe the potential risks and benefits of the project via a team of experts,” he said, adding that such a survey could not be rushed.
Envisioned as a Myanmar-based twin to the Three Gorges project, the US$3.6 billion Myitsone would be the 15th-largest dam in the world. Despite its massive size, few environmental studies were conducted before the contract for the 6000 megawatt project was signed.
The dam builder, China Power Investment Corporation, said it would study downstream impacts during the construction phase, meaning that averting environmental impacts would be nearly impossible. A survey conducted by US-based environmental research group International Rivers and local NGOs found the developer’s environmental impact assessment “seriously flawed” and “deficient”.
Due to an outpouring of popular dissent, President U Thein Sein put a pause on the project – the largest Chinese investment in Myanmar then to date – in 2011.
According to U Chit Ko Ko, since the dam is slated to be especially large – 4300 feet (1310 metres) long by 458 feet tall – any future consideration of reinstituting the project will need to take into account the earthquake risk.
“I think it’s probable that the next government will not resume it. But they will have to decide by studying the plans, and consulting with experts, which will all take time,” he said.
U Aye Lwin, a member of the Myanmar Geological Association, said the NLD will also have to consider what kind of precedent it set when it decides on the dam’s future.
He added that the Ayeyarwady River has already been muddied and filled with silt due to bridges built without regard for the environment, and that though the country is rich in rivers and creeks, it is also subject to the whims of floodsand droughts that could be exacerbated by developments.
“As it a people-elected government, we hope it will make decisions after consulting with the people,” he said.
Translation by Thiri Min Htun
