Maj. Gen. (Retd) G D Bakshi May 28, 2016
The US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for South Asia, Abraham N. Denmark, briefed reporters after submission of the Pentagon’s 2016 Annual Report to the Congress on ‘Military & Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China’. He stated: “We have noticed an increase in capability and force posture by the Chinese military in areas close to the border with India.” Responding to a question on China upgrading its military command in Tibet, he said, “It is difficult to say how much of this is driven by considerations to maintain internal stability and how much of it is an external consideration.”
The US Defence Department also warned of China’s increasing military presence, including bases, in various parts of the world, particularly in Pakistan. The report pointed out that Pakistan remains China’s primary customer for conventional weapons. It engages in both arms sales and defence industrial cooperation with Pakistan, including the LY-80 surface-to-air missile system, F 22P frigates with helicopters, main battle tank production, air-to-air missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles. In June 2014, Pakistan started co-producing the first two of its 50 Block-2 JF-17s (an upgraded version of the JF-17). The report says, “China most likely will seek to establish additional naval logistics hubs in countries with which it has long-standing friendly relationship and similar strategic interests, including Pakistan, and a precedent for hosting foreign militaries.”
China has recently regrouped its seven military area commands into just four theatres—with an emphasis on tri-services integration. The joint commands will now function directly under the Central Military Commission, replicating the US model, and the service chiefs will deal more with creation of military structures, their upkeep and training. The most significant development from the Indian point of view has been the integration of the Lanzhou Military Region (focused in Xinjiang opposite Ladakh) and the Chengdu Military Region (opposite the Northeast) into the Western Theatre Command, which pools all resources deployed against India under a single military commander.
General Zhao Zhongqui has been appointed the Western Theatre Commander. Both he and his deputy are old Tibet hands and have extensive operational experience in this area. It is now a military command that focuses the entire resources of the theatre against one adversary: India. The Chinese military strength in Tibet is being rapidly augmented. There are some six tank/motorised infantry divisions in the Western Theatre Command and the degree of mechanisation and informatisation is being enhanced. By the ab initio line-up of forces, the threat to Ladakh now is far higher compared to the Northeast. Let us not forget that in Ladakh, China and Pakistan can attack us jointly. Any future Chinese offensive will be presaged by extensive cyber-attacks and a barrage of conventional tipped rockets on our command and control nodes, airfields and logistics dumps. The most impressive and worrisome modernisation, however, is of the Chinese Air Force. It has 913 fourth-generation jet fighter aircraft (to include J-10, J-11, SU-27 and Su-30), while India has just 322 fighters of this class (Su-30, MiG-29, Mirage-2000), and Japan has 277. The arithmetic of this competition dictates that India and Japan establish a strong strategic partnership, which must include Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Phillippines, nations that are threatened by China’s muscle-flexing in the South China Sea.
Both Indian PM Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping took charge of their countries as strong and decisive leaders with a mandate for change. Both tried to seize each other up and seek a modus vivendi. It is noteworthy that initially China under Hu Jintao was hesitant about investing heavily in a state like Pakistan, which figured so prominently in the list of fast-failing states. Somehow, Jinping in his seminal visit to Pakistan last year, promised $46 billion to create a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The new silk road alignment from Gwadar to Gilgit and onto Xinjiang was primarily designed to overcome China’s Malacca bypass dilemma. Over 60 per cent of China’s energy requirements have to flow through the choke point of the Malacca Straits. In the event of a major war or crisis over Taiwan or the South China Sea, the US, Japanese and Indian navies could easily interdict this energy and trade traffic. That is why having a port on the Pakistani coast of Makran at Gwadar would enable the Chinese oil tankers to reduce their 22 days’ voyage to just five-seven days (depending upon whether the tanker is coming from Angola or the Middle East). They would bypass Malacca, Sunda and Lombok straits. China has invested heavily in Pakistan as a counterweight to India. It is turning openly hostile to India and has tried to block its entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group by pushing Pakistan’s membership. It has also blocked India’s attempts to have Azhar Masood of the JeM, who master-minded the Pathankot attack, blacklisted by the UN as an international terrorist.Let’s not forget that the Gilgit-Gwader beltway is being built through Indian territory.
