Shastri Ramachandaran
Daily News and Analysis
June 4, 2013
The visit of external affairs minister Salman Khurshid to China, in the period between the stand-off and Li’s visit served to send a firm message as well as clear the air.
Although India and China have recovered from the tension triggered by the Ladakh incursion, the consequences of the stand-off cannot be erased. One fall out, according to seasoned Indian and Chinese observers in Beijing, is that many of the certainties, and warmth, that characterised relations between the neighbours may be missing for quite some time to come.
The warmth in the relationship, which was epitomised by the extraordinary rapport between former premier Wen Jiabao and prime minister Manmohan Singh, was a major foreign policy accomplishment of the UPA government. It was expected to provide the sure ground that both countries could have benefited from after the new leadership assumed office in Beijing. Unfortunately for India-China relations, the Ladakh incursion exploded on the agenda just before premier Li Keqiang’s visit to India, which was given top billing as the new leader’s first foray abroad.
The visit of external affairs minister Salman Khurshid to China, in the period between the stand-off and Li’s visit served to send a firm message as well as clear the air. And, Li’s visit was, by all accounts, a ‘’success’’. Given the background, success here meant not so much going forward, as a reiteration of the desire to go forward.
Doubtless, the boundary issue topped the agenda. New Delhi had to repeatedly stress that peace and tranquility on the border is the foundation of India-China ties, and that any disturbance of the peace would adversely impact the relationship. For his part, Li addressed all Indian concerns, including the incursion, trade imbalance and dams on the Chinese side of the Brahmaputra.
The excessive deference to form during the Singh-Li summit and in statements thereafter are pointers to the incremental, and slow, steps that both sides would be required to take for restoration of the lost warmth in the wake of the stand-off on the border. For some time, it would be difficult to make definitive assertions about relations between the two. Both sides will go back to taking one step at a time. For bilateral engagements, this would mean looking at a calendar in terms of months and not scheduling interactions over a year or such, is one observer’s reading of the present state of the relationship.
The first delegation on a visit after the Singh-Li meeting is from India’s commerce ministry. They would, perhaps, be the first from New Delhi to get a “feel’’ of the situation. India’s defence minister AK Antony is scheduled to visit China later this year. This may be taken as a sign of “defence cooperation’’ being on course. The last defence minister to visit was Pranab Mukherjee in 2006. National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon is also expected to visit Beijing as the special representative for the boundary talks.
If no definite dates or time windows are being mentioned for these visits now, it may be taken as an indication of New Delhi wanting to appear cautious rather than gung-ho. That may also explain Manmohan Singh accepting the invitation to visit China but leaving it to diplomatic channels to decide the date.
If before the Ladakh incursion, the prime minister’s visit seemed a certainty in 2013 — especially with two successive visits by the Chinese premier — now, it is felt that New Delhi may announce the date only after the visits of Antony and Menon.
Premier Li not getting the benefit of the close rapport that Jiabao and Singh enjoyed is another certainty that would be missing in the relationship. This would be a nagging reminder that the Ladakh incursion is more than just another “occurrence’’ or ‘’irritant’’.
The author, an independent political and foreign affairs commentator.
