Ashok K Mehta
The Pioneer
Instability in Kathmandu can end only if political parties come together and ensure that the Constituent Assembly is quickly reinstated.
Surprisingly, the failure to clinch an 11th hour compromise agreement — which has become the new Nepali political ethos and tradition — on federalism has left the Constitution in suspended animation. Even more surprising has been Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai’s unilateral decision to dissolve the Constituent Assembly and announce fresh election on November 22. Incidentally the Interim Constitution does not provide for elections.
The Supreme Court had earlier rejected the Government’s request for a three-month election to complete the writing of the Constitution, saying it could go for fresh elections, hold referendum or use other means. What is that ‘other means’? Article 158 of the IC decrees “power to remove difficulties”. Former King Gyanendra had used its predecessor in the old (1990) Constitution for direct rule in February 2005. Since the Supreme Court had disallowed an extension, the Government could have recommended to President Ram Baran Yadav to declare an emergency to extend before its expiry, the life of the CA by three months. That did not happen. Neither the Prime Minister nor the President sought to preempt the political impasse confronting the country.
A fresh election was ordered without reference to the President, presumably on the cue from the Supreme Court. The fait accompli presented by the Maoist-led Government is fishy. It paves the way for its continuation in office till November 22. Prime Minister Bhattarai rejected President Yadav’s categorisation of his Government as a caretaker one, saying there is no such provision in the IC. The Opposition has demanded the resignation of the Prime Minister as Nepal’s constitutional crisis and political limbo will continue till difficulties are removed.
The day after the political impasse (May 28), BBC Nepali service asked me for my reaction to the sudden death of the CA. I said I was surprised and disappointed at the turn of events and felt that President Yadav acted with less than alacrity to save the Constitution of which he is the protector and guardian. People had feared President Yadav would be a proactive head of state who, in the event of any crisis, backed by the Nepal Army, would take over Nepal. He has turned out to be a politically perfect President who is saying he can do nothing “as my hands are tied”, and instead suggesting political consensus. More serious contingency planning ought to have been done to avoid the Catch 22 situation, given the legal expertise available to the President.
I told the BBC that the effort now must be focussed on preserving the gains of the four years of work done by the CA in completing 90 per cent of the Constitution. It would be a great shame to allow the gains to go down the drain and start drafting the Constitution de novo. Some “other means” as the Supreme Court has suggested, have to be found to revive the CA, I added. Many former legislators from the Nepali Congress and Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) have backed this idea rejecting a new election. It may be added that in May 2006, King Gyanendra reinstated Parliament at the request of Mr GP Koirala soon after the Jan Andolan.
Legally, the way ahead is unclear as is the status of the caretaker Government led by the Maoists and the Madhesis. A cacophony of demands and a variety of developments are up in the air: Dismissal of Government, formation of a national unity Government, reinstatement of the CA, threat of desertions from NC and UML on the issue of federalism, likely split in the Maoists, street protest and counter-protest programmes by political formations, political horse-trading and so on. All this could lead to political chaos and continuing instability.
An issue no one is touching is about the integration of Maoist combatants, an agreement signed and sealed in April this year. Will the Maoists — at least the MK Baidya faction, which was totally opposed to integration calling it surrender — ask the restless combatants in Army camps to revolt, especially in the event of a formal split? Sizeable number of weapons are known to have been cached before the formal surrender of weapons. Could the Maoists in the runup to election use the integration concession for bargaining?
Ordinary Nepalis are in deep distress and despair over their politicians raising hopes and expectations and then letting them down. Four years of hope waiting for political stability and economic recovery have been belied. As Finance Minister in the first Maoist Government, Mr Bhattarai promised seven per cent growth and to turn Nepal into a Switzerland. Unfortunately, the growth rate stuck below five per cent of the gross domestic product. Inflation running at seven per cent is what the Nepalis have got in the last four years. The economy has gone into a downturn due to the political instability of the last few months.
A return to the pre-2008 scenario when Maoists were underdogs is in no one’s interest. Political turmoil, violence and economic hardship must be avoided. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has reminded Nepal without a hint of sweet revenge that work on the Constitution should resume without delay, building on what has been achieved so far through legitimate and consensus means. Safeguarding the gains of the peace process would require flexibility and creativity and a reaffirmation to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2006.
Put simply, political parties must recreate a political consensus to pick up the threads of the unfinished Constitution. Already Nepal has spent $1.6 billion over the last four years on the CA. Besides the additional cost, the six month political void could lead to unimaginable violence, instability and churning of political formations.
Two opinion polls were held recently. One, by Himal Media, said 72 per cent Nepalis reject ethnic federalism and a majority felt the NC will do better than the Maoists in elections. The other, eKantipur, records that 62 per cent people blame the Maoists for the political impasse.
Two options are available. First, the use of Article 158 to reinstate the CA to complete the unfinished portion of the Constitution. Second, if an election has to be held it should be one for a Parliament which should double as CA till the Constitution is promulgated. A decision on the choice must not be delayed to limit the legal and political vacuum. Strategic sense lies in the reinstatement of the CA.
