Patrick Barta
The Wall Street Journal, Asia
Myanmar’s military nominated a former general with close ties to the previous junta to become a vice president, disappointing observers who had hoped to see a known reformer named to one of the country’s top posts.
President Thein Sein has guided Myanmar through a series of dramatic changes over the past year, opening its economy to Western investors and loosening restrictions on dissidents after decades of harsh military rule. But experts have questioned whether he has the full support of other leaders. He also is believed to suffer from heart disease, raising fears he might not be able to lead the country long enough to see through a full political and economic transformation.
The powerful military-appointed post of vice president opened up recently when a suspected hard-liner, Tin Aung Myint Oo, resigned for health reasons, triggering speculation that Mr. Thein Sein’s administration would bring in officials seen as more open to change.
Instead, the military nominated Myint Swe, 61 years old, according to the Associated Press, citing a senior general who is one of the military’s representatives in parliament. The nomination was also reported by media in Myanmar. Efforts to reach a Myanmar government spokesman for comment were unsuccessful. He has served as chief minister of the Yangon region and previously as a general staff officer under former leader Than Shwe, a reclusive strongman who was accused of overseeing widespread human-rights violations while he ran the country for roughly two decades before retiring last year. Mr. Myint Swe also at one point led military-affairs security for the junta.
“In some ways he’s a cardboard cutout from the previous regime,” said Sean Turnell, a Myanmar expert at Australia’s Macquarie University.
There is now an issue of “how vulnerable the reforms in Myanmar are now to the health of a few key individuals,” Mr. Turnell said. Those include Mr. Thein Sein and dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is 67 and has had to cancel public appearances occasionally over the past year because of various ailments.
“This guy is No. 2, so there’s going to be a disappointment in the sense that you might have wanted someone to take up the reformist baton if anything happened to Thein Sein,” Mr. Turnell said. He added that Mr. Myint Swe at least had a reputation for being less corrupt than some other former military leaders.
Many experts believe Mr. Thein Sein still plans a broader shake-up of his administration to clear the way for more reform-minded officials.
People familiar with developments in Naypyitaw say there remains some debate among top leaders over how fast the reforms should be implemented, and what role the military, which remains influential, should play in a more democratic Myanmar. Government leaders officially deny there are any internal divisions over the direction of reforms.
The government announced a minor cabinet shake-up Monday, with several ministers shifting posts, but no major exits or new arrivals, the AP reported.
It is difficult to predict how the new vice president will act, assuming he is confirmed by parliament, though that is considered a formality. Mr. Thein Sein, also a former general, was expected to take a hard line against change, but he surprised world leaders and Myanmar residents when he began releasing political prisoners and expanding Internet access, among other reforms.
