Kavi Chongkittavorn
Kuensel Online
May 30, 2013
Last Thursday, while Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his residence, urging Japan to invest in the mega-project in Dawei, there were news headlines in Myanmar that Abe would be visiting Yangon the next day, and offered loads of financial assistance and long-term economic development plans worth nearly USD 1B. Both Japan and Myanmar have the Thilawa Port in mind, not the proposed Dawei development plan for the time being.
Earlier in the same week in the US, President Thein Sein of Myanmar was tete-a-tete with President Barack Obama at the White House, followed by the signing of trade and investment framework agreement to boost their bilateral trade and economic dialogue and cooperation—something which Thailand, the American oldest ally in the region, has not yet done. By the way, Yingluck has not officially visited the White House either. Lest we forget, Thailand and the US are celebrating the 180-year old relations on Wednesday at the Foreign Ministry with a reception, photo exhibition and some cultural performances. It was a much scale down version of the grand celebration when it was discussed last year.
There is a strong sense of letdown in Thailand as Myanmar rises with all kinds of optimism. Now Thein Sein is known in the US as “the icon of reform,” vis-à-vis “the icon of democracy” the label given the opposition party leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, by the US president during her visit to Washington earlier. Indeed, both Thein Sein and Suu Kyi are working together to upgrade their country’s profile and have earned rapid international recognition.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul visited Washington DC and met with the new US State Secretary John Kerry in early May, there was a short two-paragraph press release about their meeting which supposed to be a strategic dialogue. No strategic details were given even when Kerry said that the two countries would work out plans for the next 180 years.
Thailand used to be at the center of foreign policy’ initiatives emanating from Japan and the US concerning this part of the world. Those days were gone. Now, the land of smiles is being replaced by Myanmar. During the Bush administration, Myanmar was named as one of three members in the axis of evil. Now, some 20 months after the reform, the country has become the most sought after by the major powers and regional groupings, particularly the EU. Myanmar is so popular that some Western countries are loosening up their judgment on human rights and governance issues, revealing their hypocrisies to the bones.
For instance, the plight of Rohingyas is no longer in the news even though they continue to suffer and their future is still in limbo. The culprits are still out there. The most interesting aspect is how Thailand is now under close scrutiny for their treatment of Rohingyas who have been stranded in the country in the past 10 months. The Thai authorities are not very happy with the criticism waged by the West. The six-month visa extension period would soon be expired and Bangkok is facing with a huge dilemma whether to expel them or prolong their stay as no third countries have come forward to resettle them.
Diplomats and businessmen interviewed by the author in Yangon recently shared two similar assessments of Myanmar. First, Myanmar is serious about its ongoing reforms both political and economic areas. They concluded the reform there will move ahead and accelerate after Thein Sein’s visit to the US. Second, they like to deal with the officials and private sector in Myanmar as they know exactly what they want. As a latecomer, they want to maximise the existing window of opportunity. In contrast, Thailand is still stuck in a vicious cycle of colour politics and the efforts to bring Thaksin Shinawatra home. The game of tussle will continue.
After the end of World War II, Thailand was the bulwark against the communist neighbours until the demise of Berlin Wall. Since then, Thailand’s strategic imperatives have receded to the point of insignificance. After the pronouncement of US rebalancing policy in November 2011, which Thailand has welcomed, Bangkok and Washington are hard at work to revive the defense and security cooperation under the alliance system. But somehow, the sense of disconnectedness still prevails between the two capitals. Other neighbouring countries have easily adjusted to the new realignment.
After Myanmar indicated to the US three years ago that it wanted to distance from China and cultivate diversified relations with other major countries such as EU, India and Japan. As part of such diversion, Nay Pyi Daw was willing to do whatever it took to reach level of trust and comfort with the West—releasing political prisoners, stop meddling with missile and nuclear from North Korea, continued dialogue and reconcile with the minority groups, among others. Miraculously, it took exactly two years for President Thein Sein to reach the White House.
From now on, Myanmar will be featured in the overall US strategic blueprint for Southeast Asia. Under this security umbrella, the US will continue to engage with Myanmar and to strengthen its relations, especially security and military education, to a new level. Albeit ongoing human violations in the ethnic areas and other oppressive activities, Washington would be willing to lower its critical voice liked it used to with friends in Latin America. Given the new strategic landscape in Southeast Asia, Myanmar will have a wider room to breathe and to consolidate its position in the region and global arena vis-à-vis the ongoing conflict with the armed ethnic groups at home.
At this juncture, Thailand has to wake up to the harsh reality that the US, despite the diplomatic pleasantry, is no longer playing the waiting game as it used to do. With the rise of China and diplomatic commitments that come with it, Washington does not flavour Bangkok’s approach. Impression among the US policy makers and academics is persistently strong that Thailand is a pro-China country. So, it is difficult to have a genuine alliance with Thailand under the new security environment. Other remaining US allies in the region—Australia, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines—do not have such problem. Even though the Foreign Ministry often reiterated that it has never chosen any side, particularly the US and China, but in the real diplomatic world, day-to-day actions speak louder than words. Thailand has leaned toward China for good and all practical reasons.
Unless there are substantive changes in the Foreign Ministry’s top echelon and some basic diplomatic tenets, the country’s foreign policy related to major powers would be further undermined. Therefore, Thailand will not be a regional catalyst as it so wished given its unique location in the continental Southeast Asia. Its long envisaged as the hub of ASEAN Connectivity will not be realised. As it stands today and in the foreseeable future, Myanmar is a better alternative albeit shortcomings.
