Japan is the only one among the industrialised countries whose emission reduction efforts could be considered to be “sufficient”. While efforts made by BASIC countries –India, Brazil and South Africa got a “medium rating”. Among the big developing countries, China’s efforts were adjudged to the “inadequate” while South Korea’s effort was “sufficient”.
After taking into account all the national pledges to reduce emissions or emission intensity made in Cancun in 2010, the world according to the Climate Action Tracker, is set for 3.3 degrees Centigrade rise in temperature.
It said a 1.5-2 degrees temperature rise can be achieved. Michael Schaeffer, one of the authors of the study, said “a 2 degrees pathway that remains economically feasible would require a 15% cut in emissions by 2020.”
“Two degrees is feasible. It’s possible, but we have to start now, not wait until 2020 to act,” said Bill Hare of Climate Analytics.
Industrialised countries have been demanding that the advanced developing countries should “do more” to reduce emissions and prevent warming.
While a 2 degrees goal is still within reach, countries like the United States are loathe to do more. “We are off track and the United States is not likely to meet its pledge,” said Niklas Hoehne of research group Ecofys, which along with Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research compiles the tracker.
Earlier in the week in Doha, US deputy climate envoy Jonathan Pershing made it clear that the US had no intention of increasing its emission reduction target of 17%. The US set a target to reduce emissions by 17% by 2020 from its 2005 levels. This works out to 3% reduction from their 1990 emission levels. Hoehne said thatUS pledge was not “sufficient”.
Pershing went on to say that the Obama administration had taken a series of step to reduce emissions. “Those who don’t follow what the US is doing may not be informed of the scale and extent of the effort, but it’s enormous,” Pershing said.
The US negotiator referred to the Obama administration’s efforts to sharply increase fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks, and providing climate financing for poor countries. Pershing also referred to the climate bill to cap emissions, which was stalled in the US Senate.
“The US national policies are not enough to meet the pledge,” Hoehne stressed.
The United States currently accounts for 7 giga tonnes of emission annually. Their emissions are currently slightly lower but that is on account of the economic slowdown.
The assessment finds that China’s policies of reducing emission intensity or restraining the growth of emissions by 40% to 45% by 2020 to inadequate. However, Beijing’s policies will mean that by 2020, China will have emissions to the tune of 14 giga tonnes from the current level of 10 giga tonnes. Without this intervention China’s emissions would go up to 18.5 billion.
