Manoj C G
The Indian Express
November 7, 2012
As the world turns its gaze towards the upcoming leadership change in China, the question now is not “who after Hu”, but “how” and “which” path the new generation of leaders will take, given the myriad of challenges that the country is facing. Will they break from the past?
It is more or less clear that vice president Xi Jingping, the “princeling”, will take over the baton of the Communist Party of China now and the presidency in March from Hu Jintao to rule one-third of the human population.
What is not yet clear is whether political reforms — in other words introduction of democracy and loosening of the party’s control — would be on the agenda of Xi, the son of a revolutionary hero of yesteryear. His father Xi Zhongxun had served as vice-premier.
As far as India is concerned, the question is whether there will be any change in Beijing’s stance towards New Delhi and on issues such as the vexed boundary dispute and the growing trade imbalance between the two countries. There have been no signals yet of what the new leadership’s attitude will be like.
In the last two decades, China has become an economic powerhouse, but the slowdown in the economy, widespread corruption and growing signs of social unrest have been matters of domestic worry. For Xi, the challenge is to tackle the widening gap between rich and poor and the societal imbalances and inequalities, which are creating conflict within the society. In fact, outgoing prime minister Wen Jiabao has more than once decribed China’s development as “unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable”.
About the economy, an official said on condition of anonymity: “We do not have a huge budget deficit. We have a huge current account surplus and inflation is quite low in China. So, we are not really bothered about the slowdown. China’s economy is more resilient that the people have predicted.”
Citing a GDP growth of 7.7 per cent in the first nine months of this year and a spurt in exports, he pointed out that the economy is already showing signs of looking up and argued that China is not heading for a hard landing.
The reforms process will not be derailed, China watchers say. They point at the pride of place private businessmen have found in the party. The 18th national congress of the party, which will begin on November 8 in Beijing, will have 34 private-sector businessmen as delegates.
It was Jiang Zemin who first made the bold experiment of allowing private businessmen, picking seven of them in 2002 as CPC delegates. The figure went up to 17 at the 17th party congress five years ago. The prominence being given to private business reflects the changing attitude of the Communist Party, essentially a workers’ party.
But reviving the economy and addressing the societal contradictions is only one challenge that will face Xi and Li Keqiang, who is set to take over the reins from premier Wen Jiabao. A Chinese daily, one that is considered pro-establishment, pointed out on Tuesday that more than 666,000 party members have been punished for disciplinary violations between November 2007 and June this year and more than 24,000 of them transferred to judicial authorities for suspected crimes.
The daily said these figures are proof that the Communist Party of China is serious about fighting corruption and abuse of power in its own ranks. The eulogy apart, these figures show the extent and severity of the problem of corruption — reflected in the expulsion of top leader Bo Xilai.
Another interesting thing to be watched will be the composition of the newly-elected standing committee of the political bureau of the central committee. Adding to all this is the dispute over the South China Sea.
On the eve of the party congress, there is another interesting question: whether Hu will relinquish it all or whether he, like his predecessor Jiang, will for some years remain the chief of the central military commission. Beijing, however, sports a business-as-usual look. There is not much excitement on the streets. Unlike the dead-heat American presidential election that is set for a photo-finish, here the change at the helm is scripted and choreographed to the minutest detail.
(Manoj C G is in China on the invitation of its government.)
